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4 - Model Selection

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 November 2024

Philip Hans Franses
Affiliation:
Erasmus University
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Summary

We first discuss a phenomenon called data mining. This can involve multiple tests on which variables or correlations are relevant. If used improperly, data mining may associate with scientific misconduct. Next, we discuss one way to arrive at a single final model, involving stepwise methods. We see that various stepwise methods lead to different final models. Next, we see that various configurations in test situations, here illustrated for testing for cointegration, lead to different outcomes. It may be possible to see which configurations make most sense and can be used for empirical analysis. However, we suggest that it is better to keep various models and somehow combine inferences. This is illustrated by an analysis of the losses in airline revenues in the United States owing to 9/11. We see that out of four different models, three estimate a similar loss, while the fourth model suggests only 10 percent of that figure. We argue that it is better to maintain various models, that is, models that stand various diagnostic tests, for inference and for forecasting, and to combine what can be learned from them.

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Chapter
Information
Ethics in Econometrics
A Guide to Research Practice
, pp. 88 - 112
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

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  • Model Selection
  • Philip Hans Franses, Erasmus University
  • Book: Ethics in Econometrics
  • Online publication: 14 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009428033.006
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  • Model Selection
  • Philip Hans Franses, Erasmus University
  • Book: Ethics in Econometrics
  • Online publication: 14 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009428033.006
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Model Selection
  • Philip Hans Franses, Erasmus University
  • Book: Ethics in Econometrics
  • Online publication: 14 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009428033.006
Available formats
×