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8 - Russia: after a lost decade, the phoenix rises from the ashes?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

Daniel Gros
Affiliation:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Brussels
Alfred Steinherr
Affiliation:
Freie Universität Bozen, Bolzano
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Summary

Evaluating Russia is not straightforward – and has never been. In 1925, Keynes summed up his impression of the new economic system as follows:

The economic system of Russia has undergone such rapid changes that it is impossible to obtain a precise and accurate account of it … Almost everything one can say about the country is true and false at the same time.

Keynes's statement remains valid today. Judgements on the effectiveness of the reforms in Russia from international institutions, academics and the press have ranged across the entire spectrum from very optimistic to extremely pessimistic. The best example of Russo-mania remains probably Layard and Parker's (1996) title The Coming Russian Boom. This boom had a rather short life, but predictions of descent into hyperinflationary chaos and disintegration after the crisis of 1998 proved equally wide of the mark. It is thus not easy to provide an overall judgement of the reforms in Russia as already anticipated by Keynes seventy-five years earlier. Hence, this chapter does not pretend to provide a comprehensive overview of developments in Russia over the last decade. Instead it concentrates on the most salient features of the reform process in Russia, often comparing them to what happened in Central Europe (especially Russia's largest Slav brother, Poland) in order to find some general features that can help in understanding how the Russian economy works in general, and where it might be going in the future.

Type
Chapter
Information
Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe
Planting the Seeds
, pp. 225 - 260
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2004

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