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13 - Firm turnover and profitability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 March 2010

John R. Baldwin
Affiliation:
Statistics Canada
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Summary

There is no more important proposition in economic theory than that, under competition, the rate of return on investment tends toward equality in all industries.

George Stigler (1963: 54)

Introduction

Few other topics have received as much attention in applied studies in the field of industrial economics. Despite the large number of studies in this area, few attempts have been made to measure the dynamics of the equilibration process and to relate them to specific industry characteristics.

Previous chapters have developed comprehensive measures of competitiveness and have examined the relationship between measures of competitiveness and measures of performance such as industry productivity or efficiency. This chapter explores the relationship between competitiveness and profitability.

The investigation focuses on three issues. The first is the degree to which profitability in various industries equates over time. The second is the extent to which differences in profitability are related to measures of firm turnover. The third is whether the speed with which industries regress to the mean is related to measures of industry turnover.

Profitability and competition

Previous studies

Studies of industry profitability have focused on the extent of crossindustry differences in profitability levels at a point in time and the degree to which these differences are perpetuated over time.

Stigler (1963) examines the time path of rates of profitability by correlating industry rates of return over time and reports that inter-industry rankings based on profitability changed slowly. The correlation between successive years for 99 manufacturing industries in the United States was .69 in 1946–47 and had increased to .79 by 1956–57.

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Chapter
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The Dynamics of Industrial Competition
A North American Perspective
, pp. 328 - 359
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1995

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