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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 27 December 2024
In stages 4 and 5 of the DT, birth rates fall further and average life expectancy extends. The baby boom of previous generations has moved through the demographic dividend and become an older population. This shift poses both new opportunities and challenges for all societies but especially those that do not have a strong social safety net. The richer countries have more resources to cope with a greying population.
FALLING BIRTH RATES
The total fertility rate (TFR) is defined as the average number of children born to each woman. It is also more commonly known as the birth rate. The population is stable with a birth rate of 2.1, which is considered the replacement rate. Higher than this leads to population growth, lower means population decline.
One of the most significant and globally widespread demographic changes is the decline of birth rates. Figure 6.1 shows the global trend. The birth rate has been dropping for the past 70 years. In 1963 the global birth rate was 5.3 births per women. By 2020 it had fallen to 2.3 births per woman and by 2050 it is estimated to drop to 2.1, approximately replacement level. At that stage population growth will stabilize. Of course, there is tremendous variation across the globe. There are still significantly regions with high birth rates. In 2020, in Nigeria, Somalia and Chad, for example, there were over six births per woman. The figure for Niger was eight, making it the country with a highest percentage, almost 57 per cent, of its total population aged under 18.
In many other regions the birth rate has plummeted below replacement level. There are now at least 72 countries where the birth rate is below 2.1, whereas there were none in 1950. South Korea has the lowest birth rate at 0.78. Countries below the replacement level include Bangladesh (2.0), Sri Lanka (2.0), Vietnam (1.9), El Salvador (1.8), Brazil (1.6), the United Sates (1.64), the UK (1.56), Japan (1.34) and Italy (1.24).
This declining fertility is the main reason behind the slowing down of population growth and, in association with increased life expectancy, the greying of the population.
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