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1 - THE PROBLEM

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 July 2014

Ralph L. Keeney
Affiliation:
University of Southern California
Howard Raiffa
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
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Summary

In an uncertain world the responsible decision maker must balance judgments about uncertainties with his or her preferences for possible consequences or outcomes. It's not easy to do and, even though we all have a lot of practice, we are not very good at it. Here we suggest formal techniques that will be helpful in this decision-making process. We concentrate on formalizing the preference or value side of the problem rather than developing procedures for the assessments of uncertainties. This doesn't mean that we think modeling of the uncertainties is unimportant. However, we feel that many capable scholars have already dealt with the modeling aspects of the kind of problems we have in mind; our efforts on the value side of the problem are meant to complement theirs. So, let's assume that the assessments of uncertainties are given, and let's worry about how we, as decision makers, can make sense out of our conflicting values, objectives, or goals and arrive at a wise decision. As one of our associates expressed it, “the aim of the analysis is to get your head straightened out!”

We suggest—or prescribe—how a decision maker (perhaps you) should think systematically about identifying and structuring objectives, about making vexing value tradeoffs, and about balancing various risks. The following sketches of problems will set the stage.

Type
Chapter
Information
Decisions with Multiple Objectives
Preferences and Value Trade-Offs
, pp. 1 - 30
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1993

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  • THE PROBLEM
  • Ralph L. Keeney, University of Southern California, Howard Raiffa, Harvard University, Massachusetts
  • Book: Decisions with Multiple Objectives
  • Online publication: 05 July 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139174084.003
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  • THE PROBLEM
  • Ralph L. Keeney, University of Southern California, Howard Raiffa, Harvard University, Massachusetts
  • Book: Decisions with Multiple Objectives
  • Online publication: 05 July 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139174084.003
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • THE PROBLEM
  • Ralph L. Keeney, University of Southern California, Howard Raiffa, Harvard University, Massachusetts
  • Book: Decisions with Multiple Objectives
  • Online publication: 05 July 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139174084.003
Available formats
×