Introduction

This chapter is devoted to demographic consequences of the post-accession migration for Poland. Based on official data published by the Central Statistical Office (CSO), it is estimated that between 1 May 2004 – the day when eight Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries joined the European Union – and 31 December 2006, the stock of temporary Polish migrants increased by over one million. That probably represents the most intense outflow ever from Poland during peacetime. Drawing from the Labour Force Survey data, we examine how this enormous post-accession out-migration from Poland has been distributed across Polish regions and various categories of the resident population, and attempt to establish the direct quantitative effect of the outflow on particular regions and major population categories.

Making use of the Selectivity Index, we argue that the post-accession outflow was not only highly selective, but significantly more selective than the outflow in the immediately preceding period, especially with respect to such characteristics of the population as sex, age and education. Finally, on the basis of migrant selectivity analysis, we suggest that migration-conducive factors specific to the post-accession period, such as liberalisation of the access to labour markets in destination countries, particularly in the United Kingdom, have brought about a wider participation of various groups of the Polish population in these out-movements. This might have undermined the traditionally dominant role of social networks in migration from Poland.

Background

Poland has for a long time been a net migration loser (Frejka, Okólski & Sword 1998; Iglicka 2001). Let us focus on the last quarter of a century. According to official records, between 1 January 1980 and 1 January 2007, the number of ‘permanent residents’ increased by 2.7 million, whereas the total natural increase was 3.7 million. Therefore, around 1 million (net) additional ‘permanent residents’ (27 per cent of natural increase) were lost due to emigration (Table 7.1).

In that period, however, many ‘permanent residents’, who as such have maintained an entry in Poland's population registers, have also become emigrants and have de facto ceased to live in Poland. In official statistical sources, however, the de facto emigrants are included in the estimates of Poland's population as long as they figure in the registers as ‘permanent residents’.