from Part II - A Positive Theory for Complexity Economics
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 November 2022
This chapter introduces the concepts and implications of uncertainty in complex economic models. Uncertainty is driven by different levels of analysis: from the concept of the agent and how he makes decisions (behavioural economics), from the aggregation of interacting agents that leads to emergent outcomes and heavy-tailed statistics (complexity science) and from the non-ergodicity and strong path-dependence of evolutionary models. These sources are analysed and explained, which generates a foundational definition for fundamental uncertainty and a narrative for how to use information generated by complex models attempting to mimic an infinitely more complex reality.
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