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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 November 2012
During 1935 and 1936, in the course of several reports, the Committee on Economic Information had started to consider what would happen once the current recovery had ended, and housebuilding, which had played an important role in the recovery, turned down. During 1936 the issue became clouded by the announcement of a large British rearmament programme spread over five years, the gold bloc countries' devaluations in the context of the Tripartite Agreement in September and the spread of recovery, accompanied by rising prices, throughout the world.
Early in November, in conversation with R. H. Brand, Keynes mentioned the idea of writing a series of articles on preventing another slump. He then developed the idea in a letter.
To R. H. BRAND, 12 November 1936
Dear Brand,
When we met the other day I mentioned to you that I had it in mind to write a couple of short articles on ‘The Problem of the Slump’, meaning by this some observations on the thought that ought now to be given to the problem of how to prevent or mitigate the next slump, and the policies which are most advisable with this object in view. My own feeling is that we are now approaching the phase when it is much more important to think about how to prevent the slump than about how to stimulate the boom any further than it has already gone.
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