Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- General Introduction
- Editorial Foreword by R. B. Braithwaite
- Editorial Note
- Preface to the First Edition
- I FUNDAMENTAL IDEAS
- 1 THE MEANING OF PROBABILITY
- 2 PROBABILITY IN RELATION TO THE THEORY OF KNOWLEDGE
- 3 THE MEASUREMENT OF PROBABILITIES
- 4 THE PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE
- 5 OTHER METHODS OF DETERMINING PROBABILITIES
- 6 THE WEIGHT OF ARGUMENTS
- 7 HISTORICAL RETROSPECT
- 8 THE FREQUENCY THEORY OF PROBABILITY
- 9 THE CONSTRUCTIVE THEORY OF PART I SUMMARISED
- II FUNDAMENTAL THEOREMS
- III INDUCTION AND ANALOGY
- IV SOME PHILOSOPHICAL APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY
- V THE FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE
- Bibliography
- Index
1 - THE MEANING OF PROBABILITY
from I - FUNDAMENTAL IDEAS
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 November 2012
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- General Introduction
- Editorial Foreword by R. B. Braithwaite
- Editorial Note
- Preface to the First Edition
- I FUNDAMENTAL IDEAS
- 1 THE MEANING OF PROBABILITY
- 2 PROBABILITY IN RELATION TO THE THEORY OF KNOWLEDGE
- 3 THE MEASUREMENT OF PROBABILITIES
- 4 THE PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE
- 5 OTHER METHODS OF DETERMINING PROBABILITIES
- 6 THE WEIGHT OF ARGUMENTS
- 7 HISTORICAL RETROSPECT
- 8 THE FREQUENCY THEORY OF PROBABILITY
- 9 THE CONSTRUCTIVE THEORY OF PART I SUMMARISED
- II FUNDAMENTAL THEOREMS
- III INDUCTION AND ANALOGY
- IV SOME PHILOSOPHICAL APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY
- V THE FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE
- Bibliography
- Index
Summary
‘J'ai dit plus d'une fois qu'il faudrait une nouvelle espèce de logique, qui traiteroit des degrés de Probabilité.’
Leibniz.I. Part of our knowledge we obtain direct; and part by argument. The Theory of Probability is concerned with that part which we obtain by argument, and it treats of the different degrees in which the results so obtained are conclusive or inconclusive.
In most branches of academic logic, such as the theory of the syllogism or the geometry of ideal space, all the arguments aim at demonstrative certainty. They claim to be conclusive. But many other arguments are rational and claim some weight without pretending to be certain. In metaphysics, in science, and in conduct, most of the arguments, upon which we habitually base our rational beliefs, are admitted to be inconclusive in a greater or less degree. Thus for a philosophical treatment of these branches of knowledge, the study of probability is required.
The course which the history of thought has led Logic to follow has encouraged the view that doubtful arguments are not within its scope. But in the actual exercise of reason we do not wait on certainty, or deem it irrational to depend on a doubtful argument. If logic investigates the general principles of valid thought, the study of arguments, to which it is rational to attach some weight, is as much a part of it as the study of those which are demonstrative.
2. The terms certain and probable describe the various degrees of rational belief about a proposition which different amounts of knowledge authorise us to entertain.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes , pp. 3 - 9Publisher: Royal Economic SocietyPrint publication year: 1978