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12 - ‘Europe's Economic Outlook’

from Part III - Towards ‘A Revision of the Treaty’ (1921)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 November 2012

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Summary

In August 1921 the Sunday Times announced a ‘remarkable and important series of articles’ by the author of The Economic Consequences of the Peace under the general title of ‘Europe's Economic Outlook’. According to the advertisement, the articles would examine and answer the following questions.

  1. (1) Can Germany pay the last reparation demands?

  2. (2) What effect will this reparation policy of the Allies have on world trade?

  3. (3) Why are we suffering from trade depression?

  4. (4) What permanent improvement of wages can labour hope for?

  5. (5) How can a true economic balance between the old world and the new be restored?

The five articles produced the expected sensational reaction not only in England, but in Europe and the United States as well. It was the first which had the greatest international repercussions. Published in the Sunday Times 21 August 1921 and simultaneously in Germany, France and the United States, it appeared just ten days before Germany's first payment under the new agreement of the London Conference was due. In it Keynes predicted the eventual inevitable failure of Germany to meet her obligations.

From the Sunday Times, 21 August 1921

NEW REPARATIONS SETTLEMENT: CAN GERMANY PAY?

The illusion of prosperity, apparently springing out of war, has disappeared from our minds, and pessimism has displaced the unfounded hopes of the spring of 1920. This pessimism is mainly economic. The political field is clearer than it was, even in Ireland.

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Publisher: Royal Economic Society
Print publication year: 1978

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