This document is an abridged version of the Dutch-language report on climate policy Klimaatbeleid – tussen ambitie en realisme (‘Climate policy - between ambition and realism’) published by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR 2006). As well as being longer, the original report also contains 12 appendices each focusing in more detail on a specific topic.

THE CLIMATE PROBLEM

The Earth's climate will become warmer in the coming centuries, and the consequences of this will vary widely at local level. This global climate change is due at least in part to human activity. The sustainability of the Earth in the long term depends on a stable atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In order to achieve that stable situation, emissions will have to be brought far below their current levels. The desirability of achieving this reduction forms the starting point for climate policy.

In the longer term, the climate problem is related principally to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a consequence of energy consumption, though the impact of other greenhouse gases such as methane will certainly not be negligible in the shorter term. According to the International Energy Agency, CO2 emissions per head of the global population amounted to 3.9 tonnes per year in 2001. However, there are considerable differences at national level: per capita emissions in the developed countries average 11 tonnes per year, and in the United States (US) the figure is no less than 19 tonnes. At present, the emissions in poor nations amount to less than 1 tonne per year per head of the population.

The greenhouse effect is associated with wealth and prosperity in two ways. On the one hand increasing prosperity leads to greater consumption of energy and thus to a bigger greenhouse effect. On the other hand, prosperity creates a better balance between gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption; in other words, to the extent that CO2 is regarded as pollution, richer countries produce more cleanly than poor countries. The first effect dominates at present. In the near future, the way in which the problem develops will be determined mainly by emerging economies such as India and China.