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7 - Tropical cyclones and climate change: revisiting recent studies at GFDL

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 September 2009

By
Thomas R. Knutson  and
Robert E. Tuleya
Edited by
Henry F. Diaz  and
Richard J. Murnane
Thomas R. Knutson
Affiliation:
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, P.O. Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA
Robert E. Tuleya
Affiliation:
Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, 768 W. 52nd St, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA
Henry F. Diaz
Affiliation:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, District of Columbia
Richard J. Murnane
Affiliation:
Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Garrett Park, Maryland
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Summary

Condensed summary

In this chapter, we revisit two recent studies performed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), with a focus on issues relevant to tropical cyclones and climate change. The first study was a model-based assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends. The tropical Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricane activity was found to have warmed by several tenths of a degree Celsius over the twentieth century. Coupled model historical simulations using current best estimates of radiative forcing suggest that the century-scale warming trend in the MDR may contain a significant contribution from anthropogenic forcing, including increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The results further suggest that the low-frequency variability in the MDR, apart from the trend, may contain substantial contributions from both radiative forcing (natural and anthropogenic) and internally generated climate variability. The second study used the GFDL hurricane model, in an idealized setting, to simulate the impact of a pronounced CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities and precipitation. A 1.75°C warming increases the intensities of hurricanes in the model by 5.8% in terms of surface wind speeds, 14% in terms of central pressure fall, or about one half category on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. A revised storm-core accumulated (six-hour) rainfall measure shows a 21.6% increase under high-CO2 conditions. Our simulated storm intensities are substantially less sensitive to sea surface temperature (SST) changes than recently reported historical observational trends are – a difference we are not able to completely reconcile at this time.

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Climate Extremes and Society , pp. 120 - 144
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2008

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