Book contents
- The Climate Demon
- Reviews
- The Climate Demon
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- Part I The Past
- Part II The Present
- 8 Occam’s Razor
- 9 Constraining Climate
- 10 Tuning Climate
- 11 Occam’s Beard
- 12 The Hansen Paradox
- 13 The Rumsfeld Matrix
- 14 Lost in Translation
- 15 Taking Climate Models Seriously, Not Literally
- Part III The Future
- Glossary
- Notes
- Select Bibliography
- References
- Index
13 - The Rumsfeld Matrix
Degrees of Knowledge
from Part II - The Present
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 02 November 2021
- The Climate Demon
- Reviews
- The Climate Demon
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- Part I The Past
- Part II The Present
- 8 Occam’s Razor
- 9 Constraining Climate
- 10 Tuning Climate
- 11 Occam’s Beard
- 12 The Hansen Paradox
- 13 The Rumsfeld Matrix
- 14 Lost in Translation
- 15 Taking Climate Models Seriously, Not Literally
- Part III The Future
- Glossary
- Notes
- Select Bibliography
- References
- Index
Summary
The Rumsfeld knowledge matrix – which spans the knowledge categories “known knowns,” “known unknowns,” and “unknown unknowns” – is used to illustrate the process of model improvement. Two new knowledge subcategories – “poorly known unknowns” and “well-known unknowns” – are introduced to distinguish between accuracy of parameterizations. A distinction is made between “downstream benefits” of parameterizations, which improve prediction skill, and “upstream benefits,” which improve understanding of the phenomenon being parameterized but not necessarily the prediction skill. Since new or improved parameterizations add to the complexity of models, it may be important to distinguish between essential and nonessential complexity. The fourth knowledge category in the Rumsfeld matrix is “unknown knowns” or willful ignorance, which can be used to describe contrarian views on climate change. Contrarians dismiss climate models for their limitations, but typically only offer alternatives born of unconstrained ideation.
Keywords
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- The Climate DemonPast, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction, pp. 193 - 211Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2021