Book contents
- The Climate Demon
- Reviews
- The Climate Demon
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- Part I The Past
- Part II The Present
- 8 Occam’s Razor
- 9 Constraining Climate
- 10 Tuning Climate
- 11 Occam’s Beard
- 12 The Hansen Paradox
- 13 The Rumsfeld Matrix
- 14 Lost in Translation
- 15 Taking Climate Models Seriously, Not Literally
- Part III The Future
- Glossary
- Notes
- Select Bibliography
- References
- Index
8 - Occam’s Razor
The Reduction to Simplicity
from Part II - The Present
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 02 November 2021
- The Climate Demon
- Reviews
- The Climate Demon
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- Part I The Past
- Part II The Present
- 8 Occam’s Razor
- 9 Constraining Climate
- 10 Tuning Climate
- 11 Occam’s Beard
- 12 The Hansen Paradox
- 13 The Rumsfeld Matrix
- 14 Lost in Translation
- 15 Taking Climate Models Seriously, Not Literally
- Part III The Future
- Glossary
- Notes
- Select Bibliography
- References
- Index
Summary
The concept of Occam’s Razor, also known as the principle of parsimony, is a motivating force in science. Galileo’s experiment of dropping objects of different weights from atop the Leaning Tower of Pisa to show that they fall at the same rate is an illustration of this principle. But the application of Occam’s Razor to climate modeling is less straightforward. Simple models of the kind used by Manabe provide qualitative insights, but they are not well-suited for quantitative predictions. To understand this, we can make an analogy between the hierarchy of climate models and the hierarchy of biological models, from fruit fly to mouse. Simple models are used to explore “climate tipping points,” where amplifying feedbacks lead to abrupt climate change, but they may not consider all the stabilizing feedbacks. It is therefore important to use a hierarchy of models, with varying degrees of complexity, to study climate phenomena.
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- The Climate DemonPast, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction, pp. 129 - 141Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2021