Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- Section 1 Introduction
- Section 2 Adaptation, speciation and extinction
- Section 3 Biogeography, migration and ecological niche modelling
- 10 Biodiversity informatics for climate change studies
- 11 Climate envelope models in systematics and evolutionary research: theory and practice
- 12 Biogeography of Cyclamen: an application of phyloclimatic modelling
- 13 Cenozoic climate changes and the demise of Tethyan laurel forests: lessons for the future from an integrative reconstruction of the past
- 14 The impact of climate change on the origin and future of East African rainforest trees
- 15 Hybridisation, introgression and climate change: a case study of the tree genus Fraxinus (Oleaceae)
- Section 4 Conservation
- Index
- Systematics Association Publications
- Plate section
- References
14 - The impact of climate change on the origin and future of East African rainforest trees
from Section 3 - Biogeography, migration and ecological niche modelling
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 16 May 2011
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- Section 1 Introduction
- Section 2 Adaptation, speciation and extinction
- Section 3 Biogeography, migration and ecological niche modelling
- 10 Biodiversity informatics for climate change studies
- 11 Climate envelope models in systematics and evolutionary research: theory and practice
- 12 Biogeography of Cyclamen: an application of phyloclimatic modelling
- 13 Cenozoic climate changes and the demise of Tethyan laurel forests: lessons for the future from an integrative reconstruction of the past
- 14 The impact of climate change on the origin and future of East African rainforest trees
- 15 Hybridisation, introgression and climate change: a case study of the tree genus Fraxinus (Oleaceae)
- Section 4 Conservation
- Index
- Systematics Association Publications
- Plate section
- References
Summary
Abstract
East African rainforests are characterised by a high percentage of endemic species. The occurrence of Annonaceae in the area conforms to this pattern. We review the historical biogeography of species of this family endemic to East Africa, in the light of episodes of climate change during the Tertiary. Based on herbarium specimen data, and using a phyloclimatic modelling approach, we identify the environmental variables that are associated with the origin of East African endemics of the genus Monodora. We discuss the possible responses of Monodora to future trends, based on inferences from past evolutionary changes linked to climatic transitions.
Introduction
Ecological changes due to the process of global warming and climate change are increasingly documented (Hannah et al., 2005; Lovett et al., 2005a; Lewis, 2006). Species distributions have shifted, and changes in ethology and phenology have caused the disruption of synchrony in plant–insect and predator–prey interactions (Parmesan, 2006). One of the tools applied to study the effect of climate change on organisms is species distribution modelling (Heikkinen et al., 2006; Beaumont et al., 2007). These models, also named bioclimatic envelopes or bioclimatic niches (see Kearney, 2006, for a discussion of species distribution modelling and terms involved), reflect the potential distribution of a species that is predicted on the basis of the relationships between species absence/presence, or presence-only, data, and environmental parameters of areas in which these species occur.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Climate Change, Ecology and Systematics , pp. 304 - 319Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2011
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