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16 - Assessing the effectiveness of a protected area network in the face of climatic change

from Section 4 - Conservation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 May 2011

By
B. Huntley ,
D. G. Hole  and
S. G. Willis
Edited by
Trevor R. Hodkinson ,
Michael B. Jones ,
Stephen Waldren  and
John A. N. Parnell
B. Huntley
Affiliation:
Durham University, UK
D. G. Hole
Affiliation:
Durham University, UK
S. G. Willis
Affiliation:
Durham University, UK
Trevor R. Hodkinson
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin
Michael B. Jones
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin
Stephen Waldren
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin
John A. N. Parnell
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin
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Summary

Abstract

Climatic change is expected to result in changes in species' distributions. However, current networks of protected areas, designed to conserve biodiversity, have been designated and designed on the basis of a paradigm of long-term stability of species' geographical distributions. As a result, these networks may not be effective in conserving biodiversity in a world with rapidly changing climatic conditions. We investigate this using as a model system the 1679 bird species breeding in sub-Saharan Africa and the network of 803 Important Bird Areas (IBAs) designated in the region by Bird Life International. Using climatic envelope models fitted to species' present distributions and the current climate, species' present and potential future occurrences in IBAs were simulated. The results show that the current network has the potential to maintain most species throughout the present century. However, they also indicate that this outcome depends upon substantial potential species turnover in many IBAs. This is only likely if the connectivity of the current network is enhanced substantially in key areas, and will also depend upon sympathetic management of the wider landscape, so as to enhance its permeability, and appropriate management of individual sites, taking into account their role in the overall network.

Introduction

It is now generally accepted that anthropogenic activities have resulted in global climatic changes over the past century (Trenberth et al.,2007); they may even have done so over several millennia (Ruddiman, 2003).

Type
Chapter
Information
Climate Change, Ecology and Systematics , pp. 345 - 364
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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