At the height of the protests in November 2019, seasoned Hong Kong watcher Richard Bush suggested that events sounded a “requiem” for Hong Kong. At the time it was tempting to agree. There seemed no prospect of “getting back to normal” or any obvious way out of a political impasse which had turned increasingly violent and become embedded in the escalating rivalry between the US and China. Since then, the politics have shifted yet again. In early 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic and a more restrictive approach from the police to public demonstrations dampened down street activism, as discussed in the previous chapter. Meanwhile, Beijing's more proactive stance became evident as the first half of 2020 unfolded, culminating in the passage of the national security law. Rather than a requiem, it seemed that China's leadership was looking for a restoration. At the end of all this, are we witnessing the long-prophesied demise of Hong Kong or its revival as China's global city?

These questions are particularly difficult to address given ongoing uncertainty on many fronts, including the implementation of the national security law, the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic, the impact of US presidential and congressional elections due in November 2020, and the wider prospects for China's relations with the US and other countries which have in the past enjoyed close ties with Hong Kong. But writing in the middle of 2020 it looks as if we are witnessing a significant turning point for Hong Kong that could bring with it a new politics and changes to a number of previous assumptions about the SAR. However unpredictable the future, the impact of this turning point is likely to be significant.

I explore these questions in this conclusion. The chapter first discusses the forces and the issues that will shape Hong Kong's future and how might they play out over the coming years. Then it addresses whether we are witnessing either the demise of the “one country, two systems” framework or the “end of Hong Kong” as we know it. Finally, I ask what visions of the future might be possible.