Book contents
- The Changing Flow of Energy through the Climate System
- The Changing Flow of Energy through the Climate System
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Foreword
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Earth and Climate System
- 2 Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Climate Change
- 3 Earth’s Energy Balance
- 4 The Sun–Earth System
- 5 Observations of Temperature, Moisture, Precipitation, and Radiation
- 6 The Climate System
- Flows of Energy
- 7 The Weather Machine
- 8 The Dynamic Ocean
- 9 Poleward Heat Transports by the Atmosphere and Ocean
- 10 The Changing Hydrological Cycle
- 11 Teleconnections and Patterns of Variability
- 12 El Niño
- 13 Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity
- 14 Earth’s Energy Imbalance Estimates
- 15 Attribution and the Hiatus
- 16 Prediction and Projection
- 17 Emissions and Information
- 18 Climate Change and Environmental Issues
- Glossary
- Acronyms
- Bibliography
- Index
- References
16 - Prediction and Projection
from Flows of Energy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 25 February 2022
- The Changing Flow of Energy through the Climate System
- The Changing Flow of Energy through the Climate System
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Foreword
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Earth and Climate System
- 2 Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Climate Change
- 3 Earth’s Energy Balance
- 4 The Sun–Earth System
- 5 Observations of Temperature, Moisture, Precipitation, and Radiation
- 6 The Climate System
- Flows of Energy
- 7 The Weather Machine
- 8 The Dynamic Ocean
- 9 Poleward Heat Transports by the Atmosphere and Ocean
- 10 The Changing Hydrological Cycle
- 11 Teleconnections and Patterns of Variability
- 12 El Niño
- 13 Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity
- 14 Earth’s Energy Imbalance Estimates
- 15 Attribution and the Hiatus
- 16 Prediction and Projection
- 17 Emissions and Information
- 18 Climate Change and Environmental Issues
- Glossary
- Acronyms
- Bibliography
- Index
- References
Summary
Earth’s energy imbalance is associated with the forcings of the climate system and how it responds, including all of the feedbacks. EEI is actually the net outcome, but climate models facilitate the understanding of the actual flows of energy through the climate system and in turn are a key step toward estimating the consequences. Hence, climate models are extensively used to encapsulate the knowledge and understanding of the climate system and how it works, and for making projections of the future. However, as noted in Chapter 1, the models are not perfect and involve approximations and assumptions. The IPCC approach has been very democratic in that all models have been treated equally even though some models have been shown to contain substantial errors. It makes sense to use only the models that perform well. Of course, all models contain errors, but some models actually violate physical principles, such as conservation of mass or energy, and these should not be used. Certainly, some models are a lot better than others.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- The Changing Flow of Energy Through the Climate System , pp. 246 - 259Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2022