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15 - Attribution and the Hiatus

from Flows of Energy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 February 2022

Kevin E. Trenberth
Kevin E. Trenberth
Affiliation:
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Summary

Temperatures on Earth are rising at the surface and especially for the oceans. But how is it known that this is due to human activities? The main way this question has been addressed in most places is to use climate modeling, where a climate model can be run with and without various forcings and the results compared with observations. In these models, the increase in carbon dioxide is generally assumed. But how is it known that the increased carbon dioxide comes from human activities?

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Chapter
Information
The Changing Flow of Energy Through the Climate System , pp. 234 - 245
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

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References

References and Further Reading

National Research Council, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 165pp. doi: 10.17226/21852.Google Scholar
Pall, P., Patricola, C. M., Wehner, M., et al., 2017: Diagnosing conditional anthropogenic contributions to heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. Weather Climate Extremes, 17, 1–6. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.03.004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., et al., 2018: Storylines: An alternative approach to representing uncertainty in climate change. Climatic Change, 151, 555–571. doi: 10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9Google Scholar
Trenberth, K. E., 2011: Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability. WIREs Climate Change, 2, 925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trenberth, K. E., 2012: Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change. Climatic Change, 115, 283–290. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5.Google Scholar
Trenberth, K. E., 2015: Has there been a hiatus? Science, 349, 691–692. doi: 10.1126/science.aac9225.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Trenberth, K. E., and Fasullo, J. T., 2013: An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth’s Future, 1, 19–32. doi: 10.002/2013EF000165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., Branstator, G., and Phillips, A. S., 2014: Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. Nature Climate Change, 4. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., and Shepherd, T. G., 2015: Attribution of climate extreme events. Nature Climate Change, 5, 725–730. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2657.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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