Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-04T19:46:38.060Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
This chapter is part of a book that is no longer available to purchase from Cambridge Core

24 - Decision-Making Expertise

from PART V.A - PROFESSIONAL DOMAINS

By
J. Frank Yates  and
Michael D. Tschirhart
Edited by
K. Anders Ericsson ,
Neil Charness ,
Paul J. Feltovich  and
Robert R. Hoffman
J. Frank Yates
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology & Ross School of Business, University of Michigan
Michael D. Tschirhart
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Michigan
K. Anders Ericsson
Affiliation:
Florida State University
Neil Charness
Affiliation:
Florida State University
Paul J. Feltovich
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
Robert R. Hoffman
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
Get access

Summary

Picture basketball coach Don Smith, who desperately needs at least a couple of outstanding free throw shooters. Coach Smith's team has lost game after game in the waning seconds. That is because opposing teams easily regain possession of the ball by committing intentional fouls since they know that Smith's players make few of their free throws. Coach Smith is pondering how to recruit a new player who has already demonstrated his proficiency at the line. He is also trying to figure out how to train a current player to elevate his free throw performance to the level of an expert. Related to this second approach, Coach Smith also has what some would call “scientific” concerns. He wonders why none of his players is already an excellent free throw shooter. What exactly is involved in foul shooting expertise? How does one normally develop the skill? Why is it that some players acquire the ability but others do not? Are there certain constitutional factors, physical or psychological, that limit a player's potential at the free throw line? If so, what are they? And how can one detect them, so that resources are not wasted “trying to make a silk purse from a sow's ear?”

Coach Smith's situation is by no means unique. In some form or another, it is replicated in countless circumstances where the focus is on making decisions rather than shooting free throws.

Type
Chapter
Information
The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance , pp. 421 - 438
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baron, J., & Hershey, J. C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, 569–579.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Camerer, C. F., & Johnson, E. J. (1991). The process-performance paradox in expert judgment: How can experts know so much and predict so badly? In Ericsson, K. A. & Smith, J. (Eds.), Toward a general theory of expertise: Prospects and limits (pp. 195–217). New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Caplan, R. A., Posner, K. L., & Cheney, F. W. (1991). Effect of outcome on physician judgments of appropriateness of care. Journal of the American Medical Association, 265, 1957–1960.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chase, W. G., & Simon, H. (1973). Perception in chess. Cognitive Psychology, 4, 55–81.Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M., & Corrigan, B. (1974). Linear models in decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 81, 95–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dholakia, U. M., & Bagozzi, R. P. (2002). Mustering motivation to enact decisions: How decision process characteristics influence goal realization. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15, 167–188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dougherty, M. R. P., & Hunter, J. E. (2003). Hypothesis generation, probability judgment, and individual differences in working memory capacity. Acta Psychologica, 113, 263–282.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Edwards, W., Kiss, I., Majone, G., & Toda, M. (1984). What constitutes “a good decision?” Acta Psychologica, 56, 5–27.Google Scholar
Ericsson, K. A., & Kintsch, W. (1995). Long-term working memory. Psychological Review, 102, 211–245.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ericsson, K. A., Krampe, R. Th., & Tesch-Römer, C. (1993). The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance. Psychological Review, 100, 363–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fix, J. L. (1999, July 13). Memos key in $4.9-billion verdict. Detroit Free Press, pp. 1Aff.Google Scholar
Fredrickson, B. L. (1998). What good are positive emotions? Review of General Psychology, 2, 300–319.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1999). Smart choices. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.Google Scholar
Helton, W. S., Dember, W. N., Warm, J. S., & Matthews, G. (1999). Optimism, pessimism, and false failure feedback: Effects on vigilance performance. Current Psychology: Developmental, Learning, Personality, Social, 18, 311–325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Higgins, R. C. (1998). Analysis for financial management. Boston: Irwin McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Howe, S. R., Warm, J. S., & Dember, W. N. (1995). Meta-analysis of the sensitivity decrement in vigilance. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 230–249.Google Scholar
Johnson, E. J. (1988). Expertise and decision under uncertainty: Performance and process. In Chi, M. T. H., Glaser, R., & Farr, M. J. (Eds.), The nature of expertise (pp. 209–228). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1976). Decisions with multiple objectives: Preferences and value tradeoffs. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Klein, G. (1993). A recognition-primed decision (RPD) model of rapid decision making. In Klein, G., Orasanu, J., Calderwood, R., & Zsambok, C. (Eds.), Decision making in action: Models and methods (pp. 138–147). Norwood, NJ: Ablex.Google Scholar
Kurtzberg, T. R. (1998). Creative thinking, cognitive aptitude, and integrative joint gain: A study of negotiator creativity. Creativity Research Journal, 11, 283–293.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liker, J. K. (2004). The Toyota Way. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Loewenstein, G., & Schkade, D. (1999). Wouldn't it be nice? Predicting future feelings. In Kahneman, D., Diener, E., & Schwarz, N. (Eds.), Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology (pp. 85–105). New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1959). A comparison of clinicians with five statistical methods of identifying psychotic MMPI profiles. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 6, 102–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montgomery, H., Selart, M., Gärling, T., & Lindberg, E. (1994). The judgment-choice discrepancy: Noncompatibility or restructuring? Journal of Behavioral Decision-Making, 7, 45–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, W. T. (1977). Decision analysis. Columbus, OH: Grid, Inc.Google Scholar
Önkal-Atay, D., Yates, J. F., Öimga-Mugan, C., & Öztin, Ş. (2003). Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91, 169–185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orasanu, J., & Connally, T. (1993). The reinvention of decision making. In Klein, G., Orasanu, J., Calderwood, R., & Zsambok, C. (Eds.), Decision making in action: Models and methods (pp. 3–20). Norwood, NJ: Ablex.Google Scholar
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1988). Adaptive strategy selection in decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 14, 534–552.Google Scholar
Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1988). Explanation-based decision making: Effects of memory structure on judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition, 14, 521–533.Google Scholar
Phillips, J. K., Klein, G., & Sieck, W. R. (2004). Expertise in judgment and decision making: A case for training intuitive decision skills. In Koehler, D. J. & Harvey, N. (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making (pp. 297–315). Malden, MA: Blackwell.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robitaille, D. (2004). Root cause analysis: Basic tools and techniques. Chico, CA: Paton Press.Google Scholar
Rose, C. L., Murphy, L. B., Byard, L., & Nikzad, K. (2002). The role of the Big Five personality factors in vigilance performance and workload. European Journal of Personality, 16, 185–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rostan, S. M. (1994). Problem finding, problem solving, and cognitive controls: An empirical investigation of critically acclaimed productivity. Creativity Research Journal, 7(2), 97–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sadler-Smith, E., & Shefy, E. (2004). The intuitive executive: Understanding and applying ‘gut feeling’ in decision-making. Academy of Management Executive, 18, 76–91.Google Scholar
Schwartz, B., Ward, A., Monterosso, J., Lyubomirsky, S., White, K., & Lehman, D. R. (2002). Maximizing versus satisficing: Happiness is a matter of choice. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83, 1178–1197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shafir, E., Simonson, I., & Tversky, A. (1993). Reason-based choice. Cognition, 49, 11–36.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Shanteau, J. (1992). Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 252–266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shapira, Z. (1995). Risk taking: A managerial perspective. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Sieck, W., & Yates, J. F. (1997). Exposition effects on decision making: Choice and confidence in choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70, 207–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, J. F., & Kida, T. (1991). Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing. Psychological Bulletin, 109(3), 472–489.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sterman, J. D. (2002). All models are wrong: Reflections on becoming a systems scientist. Systems Dynamics Review, 18, 501–531.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, L., & Leonardelli, G. J. (2004, July/August). Why negotiation is the most popular business school course. Ivey Business Journal, http://www.iveybusinessjournal.com/.Google Scholar
Tolcott, M. A., Marvin, F. F., & Lehner, P. E. (1989). Expert decision making in evolving situations. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 19, 606–615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). The belief in the “law of small numbers.” Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E. (2003). Is probability matching smart? Associations between probabilistic choices and cognitive ability. Memory & Cognition, 31, 243–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilson, I. B., Green, M. L., Goldman, L., Tsevat, J., Cook, E. F., & Phillips, R. S. (1997). Is experience a good teacher? How interns and attending physicians understand patients' choices for end-of-life care. Medical Decision Making, 17, 217–227.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wolfradt, U., & Pretz, J. E. (2001). Individual differences in creativity: Personality, story writing, and hobbies. European Journal of Personality, 15, 297–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yates, J. F. (1990). Judgment and decision making. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Yates, J. F. (2003). Decision management. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., & Curley, S. P. (1986). Contingency judgment: Primacy effects and attention decrement. Acta Psychologica, 62, 293–302.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Yates, J. F., Klatzky, R. L., & Young, C. A. (1995). Cognitive performance under stress. In Nickerson, R. S. (Ed.), Emerging needs and opportunities for human factors research (pp. 262–290). Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
Yates, J. F., McDaniel, L. S., & Brown, E. S. (1991). Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 60–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yates, J. F., Price, P. C., Lee, J.-W., & Ramirez, J. (1996). Good probabilistic forecasters: The “consumer's” perspective. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 41–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yates, J. F., Veinott, E. S., & Patalano, A. L. (2003). Hard decisions, bad decisions: On decision quality and decision aiding. In Schneider, S. L. & Shanteau, J. C. (Eds.), Emerging perspectives on judgment and decision research (pp. 13–63). New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zsambok, C. E., & Klein, G. (Eds.). (1997). Naturalistic decision making. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×