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15 - Mortality Modelling at the Oldest Ages in Human Populations

A Brief Overview

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 November 2024

By
Linh Hoang Khanh Dang ,
Nadine Ouellette ,
Carlo Giovanni Camarda  and
France Meslé
Edited by
Jean-François Lemaître  and
Samuel Pavard
Jean-François Lemaître
Affiliation:
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Samuel Pavard
Affiliation:
National Museum of Natural History, Paris
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Summary

Population aging is a widening demographic phenomenon in many developed countries, with the numbers of survivors above age 90 growing at steady rates. It is the source of many challenges to society. Among key factors to understand population aging, the trajectory of mortality at the highest ages figures at the centre of heated debates across disciplines, from biological to social sciences. This chapter offers a brief overview of mortality modelling above age 90, tracing the history of the most widely used mortality models at these ages, before outlining these models’ mathematical functions as well as their underlying assumptions in the most accessible way possible. Main empirical results obtained from applications of these models throughout decades of research will also be presented, following by a summary of efforts that were made to address the question of possible limits of longevity. This chapter concludes with recommendations for future research. The hope is this material will be useful for anyone who wishes to seize the broad perspective of research on mortality trajectory at highest ages.

Keywords

mortality trajectorymortality modellingparametric modelsoldest ageslongevity
Type
Chapter
Information
The Biodemography of Ageing and Longevity , pp. 300 - 310
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

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