Book contents
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 Patterns and Expectations
- 2 Extrapolation and Expectations
- 3 Eliciting Expectations under Laboratory Conditions
- 4 Features of the Laboratory Data
- 5 Similarity Matching and Scaling the Experimental Data
- 6 Pattern Extrapolation and Expectations Measured by Consumer Surveys
- 7 Heterogeneity and Uncertainty of Inflation Expectations
- 8 Inflation Dynamics
- 9 Explaining the Course of Interest Rates
- 10 Generalizing the Pattern-Based Approach
- 11 A Detour to Income Expectations
- 12 The Fisher Effect in Historical Times
- 13 Expectations of High Inflation
- 14 The Fisher Effect in Asian Economies
- 15 The Fisher Effect in African Economies
- 16 Estimates of Expected Inflation for Major Economies
- 17 Estimates of Expected Real Interest Rates for Major Economies
- Epilogue
- References
- Index
Epilogue
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 24 July 2020
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 Patterns and Expectations
- 2 Extrapolation and Expectations
- 3 Eliciting Expectations under Laboratory Conditions
- 4 Features of the Laboratory Data
- 5 Similarity Matching and Scaling the Experimental Data
- 6 Pattern Extrapolation and Expectations Measured by Consumer Surveys
- 7 Heterogeneity and Uncertainty of Inflation Expectations
- 8 Inflation Dynamics
- 9 Explaining the Course of Interest Rates
- 10 Generalizing the Pattern-Based Approach
- 11 A Detour to Income Expectations
- 12 The Fisher Effect in Historical Times
- 13 Expectations of High Inflation
- 14 The Fisher Effect in Asian Economies
- 15 The Fisher Effect in African Economies
- 16 Estimates of Expected Inflation for Major Economies
- 17 Estimates of Expected Real Interest Rates for Major Economies
- Epilogue
- References
- Index
Summary
The approach explored in this book poses a challenge to various notions of conducting economic research. First, the concept of rationality that is commonly used in economics is examined. Researchers who take it for granted that a theory of rational expectations should start from a normative standpoint find their assumption questioned. The work presented here documents a theory of bottom-up rationality. A second group of scholars find their beliefs questioned. The testing of hypotheses is not the only task to be addressed in the controlled environment of a laboratory. Instead, the economics laboratory can be fruitfully used for quantifying behavioral models. Such bottom-up models can serve as a basis for many forms of applied empirical work.
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- Chapter
- Information
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation ExpectationsMacroeconomics Meets Psychology, pp. 206Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2020