Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 January 2024
North Korea remains the only communist state that has successfully completed three-generation hereditary successions, that is, Kim Il-sung (1948–94), to Kim Jong-il (1997–2011), and to Kim Jong-un (2011–current). Compared with other dictatorial regimes that suffered leadership succession dilemmas and political turmoil, the family successions in Pyongyang occurred without noticeable political unrest. Given that regime collapse in Pyongyang seems improbable through elite opposition, organized popular protests or intervention by foreign political forces, the KPA may be the only political force that possesses the means of physical violence to pose an immediate threat to the Kim-family regime (Jeon, 2000; Byman and Lind, 2010). One may wonder why the KPA demonstrates unwavering loyalty to the Kim family rule from the state-building years through to the current Kim Jong-un regime.
When Kim Jong-il promulgated his leadership with the slogan of Songun (military-first) politics in 1998, many North Korea watchers interpreted the Songun political system as one dominated by the KPA (Oh and Hassig, 2000; Suh, 2002; Kim, I., 2006). Kim Jong-il’s Songun politics resulted in a massive increase in defence spending and adventurous foreign policies with the pursuit of nuclear weapons and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) in a time of economic distress and massive famine. The Songun system focused on Kim’s regime survival at the expense of the national economy and ordinary people’s well-being. A logical corollary was the assessment that Kim Jong-il’s political survival was heavily dependent upon the KPA’s political support; therefore, the military’s political influence has been significantly expanded in recent decades. Moreover, a military coup might have been a possibility when the suspected power vacuum emerged after the death of Kim Jong-il (Saxonberg, 2013, pp 316–20). Contrary to such expectations, however, the hereditary power succession to his son Kim Jong-un has been smooth, as the current dictator has consolidated his undisputed leadership in the Korean Workers Party (KWP), the cabinet and the KPA.
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