Politics may be the most complex of all social phenomena and the most difficult to theorize about. There is no lack of theory, of course. Instead, there are many theories, with competing claims, to explain or guide political choices. To make things even harder, theories about politics range from the normative (what should be) to the positive (what is). Since politics is complex and political theories have both positive and normative elements, newcomers can't tell where to begin or what to believe.

The political theory in this book is “analytical,” from the Greek analysis: dissolving, or loosening, a complex whole into parts. Analysis helps us understand relations of the parts, as well as the nature of the whole. Without an analytical approach, “politics” is very hard to comprehend, especially if we want to know more than “What will happen tomorrow?” It may be easy to forecast an election from opinion data taken a day before the election, but forecasting issues or elections six months off is difficult. A year before an election, anything could happen.

One might say that theories of politics are not very good if their predictions are so uncertain. One might be right! Still, it is more fair to focus on the distinct nature of the problem: Political phenomena are demandingly, delightfully complex.