Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012
The New York Power Authority (NYPA) wanted to develop a ten-year schedule for refueling its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant (IP3) that balanced fish protection, which occurs when IP3 is shut down for nuclear refueling, with the costs of buying and loading fuel. We developed a decision analysis model to compare alternative strategies for refueling. In the model, we explicitly considered key uncertainties associated with future operation: how well IP3 operates, how long it takes to refuel, and when New York State is likely to deregulate the electric utility industry. The NYPA decision makers used the model to reinforce their choice of a refueling strategy. They were not surprised that more fish protection occurred with strategies that restricted the starting date for refueling to the last full week in May, rather than allowing the starting date to float throughout the period from May through August. However, the NYPA decision makers were surprised that the more restrictive strategies also resulted in lower costs.
The NYPA is the nation's largest nonfederal public power organization, providing about one-fourth of the electricity used in New York State. The NYPA owns twelve power projects. The Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant (IP3), located on the Hudson River, generates approximately one-fifth of its electrical power. Since 1975, IP3 has saved electric power users in Westchester County and New York City more than $1 billion.
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