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10 - Understanding Unrest and Forecasting Eruptions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 April 2020

Agust Gudmundsson
Agust Gudmundsson
Affiliation:
Royal Holloway, University of London
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Summary

One of the main aims of the science of volcanology, and that of volcanotectonics in particular, is to understand volcanic unrest periods. By ‘understanding’ I mean that the signals coming from the volcano during the unrest can be interpreted in terms of plausible physical and chemical processes occurring inside the volcano. By volcanic ‘unrest’ we mean an increase in various physical and chemical signals, suggesting that associated processes within the volcano operate at different rates, intensities, or both. By interpreting the unrest period in terms of correct physical processes, there is a chance of assessing the volcanic hazard, namely the probability that the unrest period results in an eruption. Furthermore, when the understanding of the processes giving rise to the signals is accurate, not only the location of the eruption site but also the likely size (volume) of the eruption can be forecasted.

Type
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Volcanotectonics
Understanding the Structure, Deformation and Dynamics of Volcanoes
 , pp. 472 - 559
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2020

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To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

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