So far, we have studied effects of economic conditions on the strength of voters' propensity to support each of the parties competing for their votes. In this chapter, we move on to the second stage in the Downsean calculus of voting and assess the consequences for party choice of these changes in party support.

Our findings so far indicate that economic conditions have significant though not especially powerful effects on support for particular political parties. But the fact that these effects are not very powerful does not mean that the impact of economic conditions on overall election outcomes is necessarily small. As pointed out in the previous chapter, most of the more powerful independent variables tend to be relatively stable over the short run. The alignments of parties with sociostructural variables such as class and religion have a character that is more or less given, especially in the short term. Political parties' ideological stances do change over time, but rather slowly. The same is true of their position on issues, particularly important issues. So, while these variables largely explain differences in the attractiveness of various parties as options to vote for, the same variables cannot explain short-term changes in party choice. Economic conditions, on the other hand, can (and occasionally do) change rapidly. An apparently booming economy may come to a grinding halt in a very few months, with immediate consequences for economic growth and often for unemployment as well, consequences that are widely and rapidly experienced.