Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
  1. Home
  2. Books
  3. The Economy and the Vote
  • Cited by 238
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Online publication date:
December 2009
Print publication year:
2007
Online ISBN:
9780511618857
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511618857
Subjects:
Politics: General Interest, Politics and International Relations, Comparative Politics
Information

Book description

Economic conditions are said to affect election outcomes, but past research has produced unstable and contradictory findings. This book argues that these problems are caused by the failure to take account of electoral competition between parties. A research strategy to correct this problem is designed and applied to investigate effects of economic conditions on (individual) voter choices and (aggregate) election outcomes over 42 elections in 15 countries. It shows that economic conditions exert small effects on individual party preferences, which can have large consequences for election outcomes. In countries where responsibility for economic policy is clear, voters vote retrospectively and reward or punish incumbent parties - although in coalition systems smaller government parties often gain at the expense of the largest party when economic conditions deteriorate. Where clarity of responsibility for economic policy is less clear, voters vote more prospectively on the basis of expected party policies.

Reviews

"Van der Brug and company hit conventional wisdom hard. By their analysis, the economy, after all, influences the voter decision relatively little. The investigation, unique in its construction and provocative in its conclusion, begs to be read by comparative election scholars."
Michael Lewis-Beck, F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science, University of Iowa

"The Economy and the Vote is an important book on an important subject. The authors develop a simple but powerful theoretical model that treats the vote decision as a two-stage process, where party preferences and party choice are taken separately. They then provide a truly exhaustive empirical analysis of the ways in which characteristics of parties and party competition structure economic effects on party preferences and, ultimately, the vote. The end result is compelling; it confirms and illuminates what we know to be true, and resolves puzzles that have eluded explanation until now. This book is certain to engage scholars for years to come."
Christopher Wlezien, Temple University

"One of the important contributions of this book is a recasting of economic voting theories in a more comprehensive two-stage model of voting behavior...this book provides powerful methodological and theoretical guidance for for students of voting behavior and an important reminder to bring the competitive dynamic back into our models of voting behavior."
Matthew M. Singer, Journal of Politics

Refine List

Actions for selected content:

Select all | Deselect all
  • View selected items
  • Export citations
  • Download PDF (zip)
  • Save to Kindle
  • Save to Dropbox
  • Save to Google Drive

Save Search

You can save your searches here and later view and run them again in "My saved searches".

Please provide a title, maximum of 40 characters.
Cancel
×

Contents

Contents
References
References
References
Alvarez, R. M., and Nagler, J.. 1998. “When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multiparty Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 42: 55–96.
Alvarez, R. M., and Nagler, J.. 2000. “A New Approach for Modelling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections,” British Journal of Political Science 30: 57–75.
Anderson, C. 1995. Blaming the Government: Citizens and the Economy in Five European Democracies. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe.
Anker, H. 1992. Normal Vote Analysis. Amsterdam: Het Spinhuis.
Anker, H., and E. Oppenhuis. 1995. Dutch Parliamentary Election Study 1994. Amsterdam: Steinmetz Archive/SKON (the ICPSR version of this dataset was published in 1997, Study Nr. 6740).
Ansolabehere, S., and Iyengar, S.. 1995. Going Negative: How Political Advertisements Shrink and Polarize the Electorate. New York: Free Press.
Ark, B., and Haan, J.. 2000. “The Delta-Model Revisited: Recent Trends in the Structural Performance of the Dutch Economy,” International Review of Applied Economics 14: 307–21.
Barry, B. M. 1970. Sociologists, Economists and Democracy. London: Collier-Macmillan.
Bartels, L. M. 2002. “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions,” Political Behavior 24: 117–50.
Bartle, J. 1997. “Political Awareness and Heterogeneity in Models of Voting: Some Evidence from the Recent British Election Studies,” in British Elections and Parties Review 7, PattieDenver, C. D., Fisher, J., and Ludlam, S. (eds.). London: Frank Cass, pp. 1–22.
Beck, N., and Katz, J.. 1995. “What to Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series-Cross-Section Data in Comparative Politics,” American Political Science Review 89: 634–7.
Ben-Akiva, M., and Lerman, S. R.. 1985. Discrete Choice Analysis. Theory and Application to Travel Demand. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Berelson, B., Lazarsfeld, P. F., and McPhee, W. N.. 1954. Voting. A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Berger, H., and Woitek, U.. 1997. “Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany,” Public Choice 91: 179–97.
Blais, A., and Nadeau, R.. 1992. “The Electoral Budget Cycle,” Public Choice 74: 389–403.
Bloom, H., and Price, D.. 1975. “Voter Response to Short-Run Economic Conditions: The Asymmetric Effect of Prosperity and Recession,” American Political Science Review 69: 1240–54.
Bowler, S., and Lanoue, D. J.. 1992. “The Sources of Tactical Voting in British Parliamentary Elections, 1983–1987,” Political Behavior 14: 141–57.
Brug, W. van der, and C. van der Eijk. 2000. “De campagne deed er toe, mediagebruik niet,” in Tussen Beeld en Inhoud. Politiek en media in de verkiezingen van 1998, Praag, P. Jr., and Brants, K. (eds.). Amsterdam: Het Spinhuis, pp. 214–43.
Brug, W., and Eijk, C. (eds.). Forthcoming. European Elections and Domestic Politics. Lessons from the Past and Scenarios for the Future. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press.
Brug, W. van der, C. van der Eijk, and M. Franklin. 2002. “The Reasoning Public: Education, Interest and Political Choices.” Paper presented at Joint Sessions of Workshops, ECPR, Turin, March.
Brug, W. van der, C. van der Eijk, and M. Franklin. Forthcoming. “EU Support and Party Choice,” in European Elections and Domestic Politics. Lessons from the Past and Scenarios for the Future, Brug, W. and Eijk, C. (eds.). Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, pp.
Brug, W., Fennema, M., and Tillie, J. 2000. “Anti-immigrant Parties in Europe: Ideological or Protest Vote.” European Journal of Political Research 37: 77–102.
Budge, I., Robertson, D., and Hearl, D. (eds.). 1987. Ideology, Strategy, and Party Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Burden, B. C. 1997. “Deterministic and Probabilistic Voting Models,” American Journal of Political Science 41: 1150–69.
Butler, D. E., and Stokes, D. E.. 1974. Political Change in Britain – the Evolution of Electoral Choice, 2nd ed. London: Macmillan.
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., and Stokes, D. E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., and Stokes, D. E.. 1966. Elections and the Political Order. New York: Wiley.
Campbell, J. E., and Garand, J. C.. 2000. Before the Vote. Forecasting American National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Campbell, A., and Kahn, R. L.. 1952. The People Elect a President. Ann Arbor, MI: Survey Research Center I.S.R.
Chrystal, K. A., and Alt, J. E.. 1981. “Some Problems in Formulating and Testing a Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom,” The Economic Journal 91: 730–6.
Claggett, W. 1986. “A Re-examination of the Asymmetry Hypothesis: Economic Expansions, Contractions and Congressional Elections,” Western Political Quarterly 39: 623–33.
Clarke, H. D., and Stewart, M.. 1995. “Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Considered,” British Journal of Political Science 25: 15–70.
Clarke, H. D., Stewart, M., and Whiteley, P.. 1998. “New Models for New Labour: The Political Economy of Labour Party Support, January 1992–April 1997,” American Political Science Review 92: 559–75.
Clarke, H. D., and Whiteley, P.. 1990. “Presidential Approval, Partisanship and the Economy: Evidence from the 1984 Continuous Monitoring Survey,” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 2: 1–24.
Conover, P. J., and Feldman, S. 1982. “Projection and Perceptions of Candidates' Issue Positions,” Western Political Quarterly 35: 228–44.
Conover, P. J., and Feldman, S.. 1984. “How People Organize the Political World: A Schematic Model,” American Journal of Political Science 28: 95–126.
Converse, P. E. 1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics,” in Ideology and Discontent, Apter, D. (eds.). Glencoe, IL: Free Press, pp. 219–41.
Converse, P. E. 1966. “The Concept of a Normal Vote,” in Elections and the Political Order, Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., and Stokes, D. E. (eds.). New York: Wiley, pp. 9–39.
Converse, P. E. 1970. “Attitudes and Non-attitudes: Continuation of a Dialogue,” in The Quantitative Analysis of Social Problems, Tufte, E. R. (ed.). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, pp. 168–89.
Dalen, H. P., and Swank, O. H.. 1996. “Government Spending Cycles: Ideological or Opportunistic?” Public Choice 89: 183–200.
Dalton, R. J., and M. Wattenberg. 1993. “The Not So Simple Act of Voting,” in Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, Finifter, A. W. (eds.). Washington, DC: American Political Science Association, pp. 424–47.
Daudt, H. 1961. Floating Voters and the Floating Vote. Leiden: Stenfert Kroese.
Diez-Roux, A. V. 2000. “Multilevel Analysis in Public Health Research,” Annual Review of Public Health 21: 171–92.
Dorussen, H., and Taylor, M. (eds.). 2002. Economic Voting. London: Routledge.
Downs, A. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Duch, R. M., and Palmer, H. D.. 2002. “Heteregeneous Perceptions of Economic Conditions in Cross-National Perspective,” in Economic Voting, H. Dorussen and M. Taylor (eds.). London: Routledge, pp. 139–72.
Duch, R. M., and Stevenson, R.. 2003. “Re-evaluating Economic Voting.” Paper presented at the Joint Sessions of Workshops, ECPR, Edinburgh.
Eijk, C.. 2001. “Measuring Agreement in Ordered Rating Scales,” Quality and Quantity 35: 325–41.
Eijk, C.. 2002. “Design Issues in Electoral Research: Taking Care of (Core) Business,” Electoral Studies 21: 189–206.
Eijk, C., Brug, W., Kroh, M., and Franklin, M.. 2006. “Rethinking the Dependent Variable in Voting Behavior – on the Measurement and Analysis of Electoral Utilities,” Electoral Studies 25.
Eijk, C., and Franklin, M.. 1996. Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union. Ann Arbor: University ofMichigan Press.
Eijk, C. van der, M. Franklin, and W. van der Brug. 1999. “Policy Preferences and Party Choice,” in Political Representation and Legitimacy in the European Union, Schmitt, H. and Thomassen, J. (eds.). Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 161–85.
Eijk, C. van der, and M. Franklin, with F. Demant and W. van der Brug. 2004. “The Endogenous Economy: ‘Real’ Economic Conditions and Subjective Economic Evaluations.” Paper presented at the Workshop on “Perceptions, Preferences and Rationalization: Overcoming the Problem of Causal Inference in the Study of Voting,” Nuffield College, Oxford.
Eijk, C. van der, and M. Franklin, F. Demant, W. van der Brug. 2007. “The Endogenous Economy: ‘Real’ Economic Conditions, Subjective Economic Evaluations and Government Support,” Acta Politica 42(1).
Eijk, C., Franklin, M., and Marsh, M.. 1996. “What Voters Teach Us about Europe-wide Elections; What Europe-wide Elections Teach Us about Voters,” Electoral Studies 15: 149–66.
Eijk, C. van der, M. Franklin, and E. Oppenhuis. 1996. “The Strategic Context: Party Choice,” in Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union, Eijk, C., Franklin, M., et al. (eds.). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 332–65.
Eijk, C., and Niemöller, B.. 1983. Electoral Change in the Netherlands. Empirical Research and Methods of Measurement. Amsterdam: CT Press.
Eijk, C., and Niemöller, B.. 1984. “Het potentiële electoraat van de Nederlandse politieke partijen,” Beleid en Maatschappij 11: 192–204.
Eijk, C., and Oppenhuis, E.. 1991. “European Parties' Performance in Electoral Competition,” European Journal of Political Research 19: 55–80.
Enelow, J., and Hinich, M.. 1984. “Probabilistic Voting and the Importance of Centrist Ideologies in Democratic Elections,” Journal of Politics 46: 459–78.
Erikson, R. S. 1989. “Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote,” American Political Science Review 83: 567–73.
Erikson, R. S. 2002. “National Election Studies and Macro Analysis,” Electoral Studies 21: 269–81.
Erikson, R. S., MacKuen, M., and Stimson, J. A.. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Esping-Andersen, G. 1990. Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Esping-Andersen, G. 1999. Social Foundations of Post-industrial Economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Fair, R. 1988. “The Effect of Economic Events on the Vote for President: A 1984 Update,” Political Behavior 10: 168–79.
Feldman, S., and Conover, P. J.. 1983. “Candidates, Issues, and Voters: The Role of Inference in Political Perception,” Journal of Politics 45: 812–39.
Fiorina, M. P. 1978. “Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro-Analysis,” American Journal of Political Science 22: 426–43.
Fiske, S. T., and Linville, P. W.. 1980. “What Does the Schema Concept Buy Us?” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 6: 543–57.
Franklin, M., C. van der Eijk, and E. Oppenhuis. 1996. “The Institutional Context: Turnout,” in Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union, Eijk, Cees and Franklin, Mark (eds.). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 306–31.
Franklin, M., and C. Hughes. 1999. “Dynamic Representation in Britain,” in A Critical Election? British Voters and Parties in Long-Term Perspective, Norris, P., and Evans, G. (eds.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 240–58.
Franklin, M., Mackie, T., Valen, H., et al. 1992. Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Franklin, M., Niemi, R., and Whitten, G.. 1994. “The Two Faces of Tactical Voting,” British Journal of Political Science 24: 549–57.
Franklin, M., and Wlezien, C.. 1997. “The Responsive Public: Issue Salience, Policy Change, and Preferences for European Unification,” Journal of Theoretical Politics 9: 347–63.
Galli, E., and Rossi, S. P. S.. 2002. “Political Budget Cycles: The Case of the Western German Länder,” Public Choice 110: 283–303.
Golden, D. G., and Poterba, J. M.. 1980. “The Price of Popularity: The Political Business Cycle Reexamined,” American Journal of Political Science 24: 696–714.
Haverland, M. 2001. “Another Dutch Miracle? Explaining Dutch and German Pension Trajectories,” Journal of European Social Policy 11: 308–23.
Heath, A., and Evans, G.. 1994. “Tactical Voting: Concepts, Measurement and Findings,” British Journal of Political Science 24: 557–61.
Hemerijck, A. 2003. “A Paradoxical Miracle: The Politics of Coalition Government and Social Concertation in Dutch Welfare Reform,” in Konzertierung, Verhandlungsdemokratie und Reformpolitik im Wohlfahrtsstaat, Jochem, S. and Siegel, N. A. (eds.). Opladen: Leske and Budrich, pp. 232–70.
Hibbs, D. A. 1977. “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy,” American Political Science Review 71: 1467–87.
Hibbs, D. A. 1982. “On Demand for Economic Outcomes: Macroeconomic Performance and Mass Political Support in the United States, Great Britain and Germany,” Journal of Politics 44: 426–62.
Iyengar, S., Kinder, D. R., Peters, M. D., and Krosnick, J. A.. 1984. “The Evening News and Presidential Evaluations,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 46: 778–87.
Jacobson, G. C. 1983. The Politics of Congressional Elections. Boston: Little, Brown.
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A.. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under risk,” Econometrica 47: 263–91.
Karp, J. A., Vowles, J., Banducci, S. A., and Donovan, T.. 2002. “Strategic Voting, Party Activity, and Candidate Effects: Testing Explanations for Split Voting in New Zealand's New Mixed System,” Electoral Studies 21: 1–22.
Key, V. O. Jr. 1966. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936–1960. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Kiewiet, D. R. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Kinder, D. R. 1993. “Coming to Grips with the Holy Ghost,” in Experimental Foundations of Political Science, Kinder, D. R., and Palfrey, T. R. (eds.). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 1–52.
Kinder, D. R., and Kiewiet, D. R.. 1979. “Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting,” American Journal of Political Science 23: 495–527.
Kinder, D. R., and Kiewiet, D. R.. 1981. “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case,” British Journal of Political Science 11: 129–61.
Klingemann, H.-D., Hofferbert, R., and Budge, I.. 1994. Parties, Policies and Democracy. Boulder, CO: Sage.
Kramer, G. 1983. “The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate- versus Individual-Level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting,” American Political Science Review 77: 92–111.
Krause, G. A. 1997. “Voters, Information Heterogeneity, and the Dynamics of Aggregate Economic Expectations,” American Journal of Political Science 41: 1170–1200.
Kroh, M. 2003. “Parties, Politicians and Policies. Orientations of Vote Choice across Voters and Contexts.” PhD dissertation, University of Amsterdam.
Kroh, M., W. van der Brug, and C. van der Eijk. Forthcoming. “Prospects for Electoral Change,” in European Elections and Domestic Politics. Lessons from the Past and Scenarios for the Future, Brug, W. and Eijk, C. (eds.). Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Paldam, M.. 2000. “Economic Voting: An Introduction,” Electoral Studies 19: 113–22.
Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Stegmaier, M.. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes,” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183–219.
Lijphart, A. 1999. Patterns of Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Lupia, A., and McCubbins, M. D.. 1998. The Democratic Dilemma. Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know?New York: Cambridge University Press.
Luskin, R. C. 1987. “Measuring Political Sophistication,” American Journal of Political Science 31: 856–99.
Maas, K., Steenbergen, M., and Saris, W.. 1990. “Vote Probabilities,” Electoral Studies 9: 91–107.
MacDonald, S. E., Listhaug, O., and Rabinowitz, G.. 1991. “Issues and Party Support in Multiparty Systems,” American Political Science Review 85: 1107–32.
Mackuen, M. B., , R.Erikson, S., and Stimson, J. A.. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy,” American Political Science Review 86: 597–611.
Mair, P. 2002a. “De eigenaardigheden van de Nederlanders. De verkiezingen van 2002 in een vergelijkend perspectief,” B en M Tijdschrift voor Beleid, Politiek en Maatschappij 29: 160–3.
Mair, P. 2002b. “In the Aggregate: Mass Electoral Behaviour in Western Europe, 1950–2000,” in Comparative Democratic Politics. A Guide to Contemporary Theory and Research, Keman, H. (ed.). London: Sage, pp. 122–40.
Markus, G. B. 1988. “The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis,” American Journal of Political Science 32: 137–54.
Markus, G. B. 1992. “The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on Presidential Voting, 1956–1988 (an Update),” American Journal of Political Science 36: 829–34.
Marsh, M. 1998. “Testing the Second-Order Election Model After Four European Elections,” British Journal of Political Science 28: 591–607.
Marsh, M., and M. Franklin. 1996. “The Foundations: Unanswered Questions from the Study of European Elections, 1979–1994,” in Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union, Eijk, C., Franklin, M., et al. (eds.). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 332–65.
Nadeau, R., and Lewis-Beck, M. S.. 2001. “National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections,” Journal of Politics 63: 159–81.
Nannestad, P., and Paldam, M.. 1994. “The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After 25 Years,” Public Choice 79: 213–45.
Nannestad, P., and Paldam, M.. 1997. “The Grievance Asymmetry Revisited: A Micro Study of Economic Voting in Denmark, 1986–1992,” European Journal of Political Economy 13: 81–99.
Nannestad, P., and M. Paldam. 2002. “The Cost of Ruling: a Foundation Stone for Two Theories,” in Economic Voting, Dorussen, H. and Taylor, M. (eds.). London: Routledge, pp. 17–44.
Nickell, S., and Ours, J.. 1999. “The Netherlands and the United Kingdom: A European Unemployment Miracle?” Paper presented in Frankfurt at the Economic Policy Panel Meeting, April 9, 1999, and in Ottawa at the CSLS Conference on the Structural Aspects of Unemployment in Canada, April 23, 1999.
Niemi, R. G., Whitten, G., and Franklin, M. N.. 1992. “Constituency Characteristics, Individual Characteristics and Tactical Voting in the 1987 British General Election,” British Journal of Political Science 22: 229–54.
Nordhaus, W. D. 1975. “The Political Business Cycle,” The Review of Economic Studies 42: 169–90.
Norpoth, H. 1996. “The Economy,” in Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective, LeDuc, L., Niemi, R. G., and Norris, P. (eds.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 299–318.
Oppenhuis, E. 1995. Voting Behavior in Europe. A Comparative Analysis of Electoral Participation and Party Choice. Amsterdam: Het Spinhuis.
Oppenhuis, E., C. van der Eijk, and M. Franklin. 1996. “The Party Context: Outcomes,” in Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union, Eijk, Cees and Franklin, Mark (eds.). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 287–305.
Ordeshook, P. C., and Zeng, L.. 1997. “Rational Voters and Strategic Voting: Evidence from the 1968, 1980, and 1992 Elections,” Journal of Theoretical Politics 9: 167–87.
Paldam, M. 1991. “How Robust Is the Vote Function? A Study of 17 Countries Over Four Decades,” in Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support, Norpoth, H., Lewis-Beck, M. S., and Lafay, J.-D. (eds.). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 9–31.
Paldam, M. 1997. “Political Business Cycles,” in Perspectives on Public Choice: A Handbook, ed. D. Mueller. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 342–70.
Pattie, C. J., and Johnston, R. J.. 2001. “Routes to Party Choice: Ideology, Economic Evaluations and Voting at the 1997 British General Election,” European Journal of Political Research 39: 373–89.
Popkin, S. 1991. The Reasoning Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Powell, G. B. Jr. 2000. Elections as Instruments of Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Powell, G. B.., and Whitten, B. G.. 1993. “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context,” American Journal of Political Science 37: 391–414.
Price, S., and Sanders, D.. 1993. “Modeling Government Popularity in Postwar Britain: A Methodological Example,” American Journal of Political Science 37: 317–34.
Price, S., and Sanders, D.. 1994. “Party Support and Economic Perceptions in the UK: A Two-Level Approach,” in British Elections and Parties Yearbook, eds. D. Broughton et al. London: Frank Cass, pp. 46–72.
Przeworski, A., and Teune, H.. 1970. The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry. New York: Wiley.
Rabinowitz, G., and MacDonald, S.. 1989. “A Directional Theory of Issue Voting,” American Political Science Review 83: 93–121.
Reif, K. (ed.). 1984. European Elections 1979/81 and 1984. Conclusion and Perspectives from Empirical Research. Berlin: Quorum.
Reif, K., and Schmitt, H.. 1980. “Nine Second-Order National Elections. A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results,” European Journal for Political Research 8: 3–44.
Robinson, W. S. 1950. “Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals,” American Sociological Review 15: 351–7.
Royed, T. J., Leyden, K. M., and Borrelli, S. A.. 2000. “Is ‘Clarity of Responsibility’ Important for Economic Voting? Revisiting Powell and Whitten's Hypothesis,” British Journal of Political Science 30: 669–98.
Sanders, D. 1996. “Economic Performance, Management Competence and the Outcome of the Next General Election,” Political Studies 44: 203–31.
Sanders, D. 1999. “Conservative Incompetence, Labour Responsibility, and the Feelgood Factor: Why the Economy Failed to Save the Conservatives in 1997,” Electoral Studies 18: 251–70.
Saris, W. E. (ed.). 1988. Variation in Response Function: A Source of Measurement Error. Amsterdam: SRF.
Sartori, G. 1976. Parties and Party Systems. A Framework for Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Schmitt, H., and K. Reif. 2003. “Der Hauptwahlzyklus und die Ergebnisse von Nebenwahlen: Konzeptuelle und empirische Rekonstruktionen am Beispiel der Europawahlen in Wahlzyklus der Bundesrepublik,” in Politbarometer, Wuest, A. M. (ed.). Opladen: Leske und Budrich, pp. 239–54.
Schmitt, H., and Thomassen, J. (eds.) 1999. Political Representation and Legitimacy in the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Sniderman, P. M. 1993. “The New Look in Public Opinion Research,” in Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, Finifter, A. W. (ed.). Washington, DC: The American Political Science Association, pp. 219–45.
Sniderman, P. M., Brody, R. A., and Tetlock, P. E. (eds.). 1991. Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Snijders, T. A. B., and Bosker, R. J.. 1999. Multilevel Analysis. An Introduction to Basic and Advanced Multilevel Modeling. London: Sage.
Steenbergen, M. R., and Jones, B. S.. 2002. “Modeling Multilevel Data Structures,” American Journal of Political Science 46: 218–37.
Stevenson, R. T. (2002). “The Economy as Context: Indirect Links Between the Economy and Voters,” in Economic Voting, Dorussen, H. and Taylor, M. (eds.). London: Routledge, pp. 45–65.
Stimson, J. A. 1985. “Regression in Space and Time: A Statistical Essay,” American Journal of Political Science 29: 914–47.
Stoker, L., and J. Bowers. 2002. “Designing Multi-Level Studies: Sampling Voters and Electoral Contexts,” in The Future of Election Studies, Franklin, M. and Wlezien, C. (eds.). Amsterdam: Pergamon, pp. 77–110.
Thomassen, J. (ed.)., 2005. The European Voter. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Tillie, J. 1995. Party Utility and Voting Behavior. Amsterdam: Het Spinhuis.
Train, K. E. 2003. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Treisman, D., and Gimpelson, V.. 2001. “Political Business Cycles and Russian Elections, or the Manipulations of ‘Chudar,’” British Journal of Political Science 31: 225–46.
Tufte, E. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Visser, J., and Hemerijck, A.. 1997. A Dutch Miracle: Job Growth, Welfare Reform and Corporatism in the Netherlands. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
Whitten, G., and Palmer, H. D.. 1999. “Cross-National Analyses of Economic Voting,” Electoral Studies 18: 49–67.
Wilkin, S., Haller, B., and Norpoth, H.. 1997. “From Argentina to Zambia – A World-Wide Test of Economic Voting,” Electoral Studies 16: 301–16.
Wlezien, C. 1995. “The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending,” American Journal of Political Science 39: 981–1000.
Wlezien, C. 2004. “Patterns of Representation: Dynamics of Public Preferences and Policy,” The Journal of Politics 66: 1–24.
Wlezien, C., and Erikson, R. S.. 2002. “The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns,” The Journal of Politics 64: 969–93.
Wlezien, C., Franklin, M., and Twiggs, D.. 1997. “Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity,” Political Behavior 19: 7–17.
Zaller, J. R. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Zaller, J. R. 2002. “The Statistical Power of Election Studies to Detect Media Exposure Effects in Political Campaigns,” Electoral Studies 21: 297–329.
Zaller, J. R. 2005. “Floating Voters in U.S. Presidential Elections 1948–2000,” in Studies in Public Opinion: Attitudes, Nonattitudes, Measurement Error, and Change, Saris, W. E. and Sniderman, P. M. (eds.). Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 166–214.

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Book summary page views

Total views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between #date#. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.