Organic cropping systems are characterized by soil-disturbance events that can be diversified over years through crop rotations and within seasons by varying planting dates. The Farming Systems Project at Beltsville, MD, USA, is a long-term experiment that includes three organic rotations, corn (Zea mays L.)–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.], corn–soybean–wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and corn–soybean–wheat–alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.). Analysis of weed presence and cover over the first 18 yr of this experiment revealed that the tall, erect annual broadleaf weeds smooth pigweed (Amaranthus hybridus L.), common lambsquarters (Chenopodium album L.), horseweed (Erigeron canadensis L.), jimsonweed (Datura stramonium L.), and/or velvetleaf (Abutilon theophrasti Medik.) were most prominent in corn and soybean. Generally, these species exhibited traits adapted to the disturbance regimes, nutrient availability, crop environment and duration, and local meteorological conditions associated with the summer annual corn and soybean crops. Abundance of A. hybridus, D. stramonium, and A. theophrasti were controlled primarily by rotation diversity, whereby presence and cover of these species were highest in the short corn–soybean rotation and lowest in the longer rotations that had more diverse seasonal soil-disturbance regimes. Early-season temperature was the primary factor controlling C. album presence and cover, which were higher at lower temperatures associated with earlier planting dates. Higher early-season precipitation was the primary factor associated with higher presence of annual grass species. The relative abundance of species in organic corn and soybean was determined primarily by the diversity of crops and disturbance operations in rotation, the timing of spring tillage and planting, and annual meteorological conditions driving emergence periodicity.

The strong mechanistic relationship between climatic factors and seed dormancy and germination suggests that forecast climatic changes will significantly affect seed bank persistence. This review focuses on the potential impact of changing temperature, rainfall and fire regimes on the longevity of long-term persistent seed-banks. Currently, there are few studies investigating the mechanistic responses of demographic processes, such as seed-bank dynamics, to forecast climate change. However, from the work that has been published, several key points have been highlighted. First, increased air temperatures will produce significantly higher soil temperatures in open and sparsely vegetated habitats. Some evidence shows that this could accelerate the decline of seed viability and compromise bet-hedging strategies of species in dryland regions. Second, changes to rainfall season may determine the relative success of recruitment, with lower levels of success producing net losses to seed bank longevity. Finally, higher temperatures are likely to produce increased fire frequency, compromising the persistence of plant populations dependent on long-lived seed banks. Improving our understanding of both the mechanistic response and adaptive capacity of seed banks to climate change will provide a solid basis for improved predictions of future species distributions and risk of extinction, particularly in ecosystems subjected to temporally stochastic disturbances. It is necessary to develop functional groups based on key life-history trait responses to changing environmental conditions, to enable broader-scale predictions of distribution and persistence in the future.