We experimentally investigate the effect of time pressure from deadlines in a rich-context bargaining game with an induced reference point at the 2/3-1/3 distribution. Our results show that first proposals, concessions, and settlements are very similar for different time-pressure levels. Nevertheless, time pressure systematically influences the type of agreements reached: the likelihood of bargainers reaching agreements on the equal split is lower under time pressure. Furthermore, disagreements and last-moment-agreements (conditional on reaching an agreement) are more frequently observed under time pressure, though the effect on last-moment agreements disappears when disagreements are included in the analysis. Finally, the effect of time-pressure on the frequency of disagreements is stronger for those pairs with higher tension in first proposals.

The fraction of a user population willing to tolerate nuisances of size x is summarized in the survivor curve S(x); its shape is crucial in economic decisions such as pricing and advertising. We report a laboratory experiment that, for the first time, estimates the shape of survivor curves in several different settings. Laboratory subjects engage in a series of six desirable activities, e.g., playing a video game, viewing a chosen video clip, or earning money by answering questions. For each activity and each subject we introduce a chosen level $x\in [x_{min},x_{max}]$ of a particular nuisance, and the subject chooses whether to tolerate the nuisance or to switch to a bland activity for the remaining time. New non-parametric techniques provide bounds on the empirical survivor curves for each activity. Parametric fits of the classic Weibull distribution provide estimates of the survivor curves’ shapes. The fitted shape parameter depends on the activity and nuisance, but overall the estimated survivor curves tend to be log-convex. An implication, given the model of Aperjis and Huberman (SSRN, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1672820, 2011), is that introducing nuisances all at once will generally be more profitable than introducing them gradually.

In standard trust games, no trust is the default, and trust generates a potential gain. We investigate a reframed trust game in which full trust is default and where no trust generates a loss. We find significantly lower levels of trust and trustworthiness in the loss domain when full trust is default than in the gain domain when no trust is default. As a consequence, trust is on average profitable in the gain domain, but not in the loss domain. We also find that subjects respond more positively to higher trust in the loss domain than in the gain domain.

In preventative health decisions, such as the decision to undergo an invasive screening test or treatment, people may be deterred from selecting the test because its perceived disutility relative to not testing is greater than the utility associated with prevention of possible disease. The prospect theory editing operation, by which a decision maker’s reference point is determined, can have important effects on the disutility of the test. On the basis of the prospect theory value function, this paper develops two approaches to reducing disutility by directing the decision maker’s attention to either (actual) past or (expected) future losses that result in shifted reference points. After providing a graphical description of the approaches and a mathematical proof of the direction of their effect on judgment, we briefly illustrate the potential value of these approaches with examples from qualitative research on prostate cancer treatment decisions.

When given a desirable item, people have a tendency to value this owned item more than an equally-desirable, unowned item. Conversely, when the endowed item is undesirable, in some circumstances people have a tendency to swap it for an equally undesirable item, a phenomenon known as the reversed endowment effect. The fact that the endowment effect can reverse for undesirable items has been taken as evidence against loss aversion being the underlying cause of the endowment effect. This study represents the first time that the reversed endowment effect has been observed for choices with real consequences. However, we find that the reversed endowment effect occurs only when participants’ ability to compare the available choice options is limited. We further show that these endowment reversals can also be induced for choices between desirable options and removed for choices between undesirable options by manipulating the expectations participants have when making a choice. Finally, we show that our data, including endowment reversals, can in principle be explained by loss aversion.

Several recent papers have criticized the scientific robustness of the fisheries management system used by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), including that for Ross Sea toothfish. Here we present a response from the wider CCAMLR community to address concerns and to correct some apparent misconceptions about how CCAMLR acts to promote conservation whilst allowing safe exploitation in all of its fisheries. A key aspect of CCAMLR’s approach is its adaptive feedback nature; regular monitoring and analysis allows for adjustments to be made, as necessary, to provide a robust management system despite the statistical uncertainties inherent in any single assessment. Within the Ross Sea, application of CCAMLR’s precautionary approach has allowed the toothfish fishery to develop in a steady fashion with an associated accumulation of data and greater scientific understanding. Regular stock assessments of the fishery have been carried out since 2005, and the 2013 stock assessment estimated current spawning stock biomass to be at 75% of the pre-exploitation level. There will always be additional uncertainties which need to be addressed, but where information is lacking the CCAMLR approach to management ensures exploitation rates are at a level commensurate with a precautionary approach.

Worldwide, coastal and floodplain wetlands are rapidly urbanizing, making them highly vulnerable to biodiversity loss, biological invasion and climate change. Yet urban wetlands management is an understudied area of global environmental research. Different policy approaches and institutional arrangements in place for urban wetlands governance have to be studied comparatively to obtain a better understanding of the current issues. This paper investigates four urban wetland policy regimes and the application of ecological reference points across four countries. The regimes are discussed within the context of global policy trends, urbanization patterns and environmental change. The analysis illustrates that the four cases deviate substantially in certain characteristics and converge in others. Global trends such as environmental treaties and restructuring of city spaces are common policy drivers for all cases. Conversely, the localized specific problems have yielded specialized policy responses in each case. Declaration of fixed biological reference points for wetlands were not used at any stage of the policy development process. However, the wetland managers formally or informally set up ecosystem-services oriented benchmarks for urban wetland management. Globally-applicable normative policy directives or universal ecological reference points seem bound to fail in urban wetlands governance. However, in designing effective urban wetland policy and institutions at the regional scale, both context-specific and generalized lessons from empirical policy evaluation of multiple case studies need to be jointly considered. Based on the characteristics of the policy regimes analysed in this study, a hypothetical framework for urban wetland policy evaluation is proposed; this has yet to be validated by empirical application to actual cases.

For fisheries with multiple, competing objectives, identifying and applying reference points for management can present difficult trade-offs between long-term biological and shorter-term socioeconomic considerations. The term biological benchmarks is proposed to demarcate zones of population status based on conservation and production considerations. These scientifically derived benchmarks contrast with management reference points that generally require additional shorter-term socioeconomic information best obtained through public consultations. This paper illustrates the distinction between biological benchmarks and management reference points with a case study on Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). In Canada, the management and assessment of wild Pacific salmon are guided by a major 2005 conservation policy, which calls for the identification of biological benchmarks to categorize status of demographically isolated populations, and decision-support tools, such as management reference points, to integrate biological information with appropriate social and economic information. In the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada), the selection of management reference points for sockeye salmon (O. nerka) fisheries explicitly considered trade-offs between the probability of meeting long-term biological objectives on component populations and harvest objectives on population aggregates. Decisions about reference points were made in a consultative process that included extensive stakeholder engagement. Other agencies are urged to distinguish biological benchmarks from management reference points to ensure transparency in the relative influence of biological versus socioeconomic information in decision making.

Fisheries bycatch threatens populations of marine megafauna such as marine mammals, turtles, seabirds, sharks and rays, but fisheries impacts on non-target populations are often difficult to assess due to factors such as data limitation, poorly defined management objectives and lack of quantitative bycatch reduction targets. Limit reference points can be used to address these issues and thereby facilitate adoption and implementation of mitigation efforts. Reference points based on catch data and life history analysis can identify sustainability limits for bycatch with respect to defined population goals even when data are quite limited. This can expedite assessments for large numbers of species and enable prioritization of management actions based on mitigation urgency and efficacy. This paper reviews limit reference point estimators for marine megafauna bycatch, with the aim of highlighting their utility in fisheries management and promoting best practices for use. Different estimators share a common basic structure that can be flexibly applied to different contexts depending on species life history and available data types. Information on demographic vital rates and abundance is required; of these, abundance is the most data-dependent and thus most limiting factor for application. There are different approaches for handling management risk stemming from uncertainty in reference point and bycatch estimates. Risk tolerance can be incorporated explicitly into the reference point estimator itself, or probability distributions may be used to describe uncertainties in bycatch and reference point estimates, and risk tolerance may guide how those are factored into the management process. Either approach requires simulation-based performance testing such as management strategy evaluation to ensure that management objectives can be achieved. Factoring potential sources of bias into such evaluations is critical. This paper reviews the technical, operational, and political challenges to widespread application of reference points for management of marine megafauna bycatch, while emphasizing the importance of developing assessment frameworks that can facilitate sustainable fishing practices.

Simulation of fisheries systems is a widely used approach that integrates monitoring and assessment tools. We applied the ALADYM (age-length based dynamic model) simulation model to three different studies aimed at investigating correlations between pressure and population metrics, exploring the viability of different mortality levels in long-term scenarios and predicting the effects of combined management measures. Uncertainty was incorporated into the simulations following the Monte Carlo paradigm. Three stocks were used for these exercises: red mullet in the central-southern Tyrrhenian Sea and European hake in both the Bay of Biscay and the Aegean Sea. The analysis of the relationships between total mortality and indicators highlighted significant pairwise negative correlations for red mullet. These signals of decline were supported by the spawning potential ratio indicator (mean exploited to mean unexploited spawning-stock biomass ESSB/USSB), which was low compared to target levels. It only remained within safe bounds (>0.2; probability: 0.90–0.95) at total mortality levels lower than 1.6. The simulation results for European hake in the Bay of Biscay showed that a sustainable exploitation rate might range from 0.87 to 1.04. The benefits of combined management measures were demonstrated for European hake in the Aegean Sea, and with a further dataset on the Eastern cod stock in the Baltic Sea.