We examine the effect of an irrelevant task that may become a reference point on subjects’ effort, feelings and perceptions. All subjects complete up to 25 tasks and are paid $0.10 per task solved correctly. However, some subjects have an easy task of finding one letter and others have a hard task of finding two letters. In the irrelevant-task treatment conditions subjects are told about the two types of tasks and are then assigned randomly to one. In addition, there are two control conditions, and in each control condition subjects are assigned to a specific task without the other task being possible or mentioned. Subjects in the irrelevant-task treatments express more positive (negative) feelings when assigned to the easy (hard) task. The control conditions that have no reference point of another task are in between the two irrelevant-task treatments in the feeling ratings. We hypothesized that for a given task, the subjects in the experimental conditions that have more positive feelings will also solve more tasks, but this hypothesis was not supported by the data. Finally, subjects who receive the easy task complete more tasks than the ones with the hard task.

Are referendum campaigns involving issues about sovereignty more likely to succeed if framed in a positive rather than a negative way? We ran a survey on a hypothetical referendum on a peace agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to answer this question, and we experimentally simulated both positive and negative frames. We found that the positive campaign frame, i.e. one that contains an invitation to support a lasting peace in the Balkans, economic prosperity, Serbia’s path to EU integration, and the protection of the Serbian population and cultural heritage in Kosovo, is more appealing than the negative one, which focuses on avoiding the risk of failure. Our finding contradicts previous works that relied on the prospect theory to argue that negatively framed messages can attract more attention because people try to avoid adverse outcomes. To explain our findings, we argue that positive referendum campaigns are more effective than negative ones when the reference point is low due to attributive framing.

Risk management tools are at the core of farm policy in many developed countries, and their effectiveness relies on the appropriate mechanism design. This study developed a gain-loss framework based on prospect theory to examine the reasons for the declining use of the main risk management tool offered to farmers despite growing volatility in returns. Using the administrative Ontario Farm Income Database (OFID) 2003 to 2013 and taking the beef sector as the example, this study found that the gain-loss framework predicts and explains the dynamic program participation pattern better than the conventional expected utility framework. Farms were found to be more likely to stay enrolled in the program when they experienced either larger gains or losses in revenue compared to previous years, suggesting that they were using the insurance programs both as an investment strategy (to seek government subsidies) and as a risk management tool (to protect against business risks), though the effects of revenue losses and hence risk management needs were stronger than gains. In addition, the program payment history and farm characteristics also shape the dynamic participation patterns. The findings increased the understanding of the drivers of withdrawal behavior associated with government-sponsored business risk management programs.

The goals of ecosystem based management (EBM) are strategically ambiguous, meaning that they require interpretation to identify objectives for ecosystem state. Ecosystem states that are useful for achieving such objectives are known as reference points. Soft reference points specify both a state and a probability of the ecosystem being in that state. They are used with simulation models to identify management measures for which the risk of the ecosystem entering an undesirable state is below a specified level. The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is responsible for the EBM of Antarctic krill fisheries. CCAMLR used soft reference points for the krill stock in the Scotia Sea and southern Drake Passage to set a regional catch limit. However, this catch limit needs spatial subdivision to protect predators from localized depletion. Model-based evaluations of different options for subdividing the catch limit used illustrative reference points to assess the depletion risk to multiple predators. This study demonstrates that the apparent risk is sensitive to the choice of reference point and method for aggregating modelled predators. EBM practitioners and stakeholders need to be aware that these factors could therefore bias comparisons of management measures. Nonetheless, qualitative distinctions between different spatial subdivision options are relatively consistent except at high levels of aggregation and extreme reference points. This study also demonstrates a lack of generality in the relationship between current and future ecosystem state. Thus, the EBM goal of maintaining ecosystem resilience implies different reference points for the current state of different ecosystem components. Despite early progress in defining soft reference points for the krill stock, CCAMLR has not yet defined reference points for krill predators. Structured dialogue aimed at identifying collective objectives might be necessary to achieve further progress in CCAMLR and other EBM organizations.