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1 results

  • Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks

  • Resul Umit
  • Journal:
    Political Science Research and Methods / Volume 11 / Issue 1 / January 2023
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    15 July 2021, pp. 53-62
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  • Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.