This research seeks to determine effects of rising interest in gluten-free foods on U.S. retail food demand and, ultimately, producer and consumer welfare. Increased gluten-free interest led to a modest reduction in cereals and bakery demand and increases in meat, alcoholic beverages, and food away from home demand. Combining estimated effects with an equilibrium displacement model suggests the reduction in cereal and bakery demand decreases wheat and barley producer profits by US$7.2 million/year. After accounting for positive demand impacts on other products, results indicate wheat and barley supply is redistributed away from food production into animal production, increasing wheat producer welfare.

We estimated the economic benefits resulting from controlling soybean aphid infestation by using a multi-regional competitive dynamic equilibrium model. Results indicate that the reduction of soybean production resulting from a soybean aphid infestation is largely absorbed by reducing soybean exports, due to the higher price elasticity of export demand compared to domestic demand. Producer benefits resulting from controlling soybean aphids would increase by between $949 million and $1.623 billion in ten years under various scenarios. Results also suggest that it is economically more efficient to control soybean aphids when the rate of intrinsic growth is relatively lower, the supply price elasticity of soybean acreage is relatively more elastic, and insecticide treatment costs per acre are lower. However, if the discovery of the gene Rag-1 (TF04048) leads to new cultivars that withstand the soybean aphid, our estimates will overestimate the actual damages. Even so, our analysis demonstrates that it is critical to control soybean aphids early in their infestation cycle to avoid a rapid increase in damages.

An adaptive regression model is employed for estimating pre- and post-boll weevil eradication cotton-acreage response. Results indicate cotton acreage becoming more inelastic to own- and cross-price changes. As a result of this shift in acreage response and yield increases from eradication, net producer benefits on average are $88.73 per acre.