A ratio-based logistic model developed to assess elephant harvest rates, based on a study at Nagarhole Tiger Reserve in India, was recommended as a management tool to control human–elephant conflict through culling. Considering this reserve among others violates an assumption of the logistic model: isolation. Nevertheless, assuming this violation was irrelevant, we re-evaluated the model, with minor modifications, for the neighbouring Mudumalai Tiger Reserve, where we used data from 13 elephant Elephas maximus population surveys to derive bootstrapped sets of population ratios, and mortality records. We generated arrays of harvest regimes and examined which ratio outputs were closest to the bootstrapped ratios. Our results indicated that (1) model outputs corresponded best with the Mudumalai population structure when harvest regimes were extreme and unlikely, (2) there were significant differences in population structure and harvest regimes between Nagarhole and Mudumalai, and (3) only 49% of adult male deaths predicted by model outputs were recorded in official governmental records. The model provides significantly different results among reserves, which invalidates it as a tool to predict change across the entire elephant population. Variability in survey data and inaccuracies in transition probabilities are sufficiently large to warrant caution when using them as a basis for deterministic modelling. Official mortality databases provide a weak means of validation because poaching incidents are poorly recorded. We conclude that the model should be based on validated transition probabilities and encompass the entire regional population.

A genealogical and a viability analysis was carried out on the 1559 available registers for the Conservation Nucleus of Brazilian Bergamasca sheep of the University of Brasilia farm in Brazil using the ENDOG and the Vortex programs. To run the ENDOG it was used the registered data and for the Vortex it was used information obtained by a questionnaire answered by the curators of the herds. Of the animals registered, 767 had known parents, with significantly more dams known at each generation. The number of pedigrees known has increased over the generations, with higher registration of parents of sires than dams. The Computed Mean Inbreeding calculated by ENDOG was 0.29 percent and mean average relatedness was 1.52 percent. Mean Generation interval was 3.71 years with this values being lower for sires than dams. The population probability of extinction, calculated by Vortex was 17 percent and the average time to extinction was 59 years. Forty-two additional scenarios were created to determine which factors most threaten these populations which were frequency of catastrophes, lack of animal entrance and adult and lamb mortalities, especially adult female mortality. These results indicate that future breeding plans should include exchange of sires between farms to maintain low inbreeding levels and increase genetic variability and upgrade the management to control the mortality rates of animals.