A simple mass balance model provides insight into the hydrologic, isotopic, and chemical responses of Lake Titicaca to past climatic changes. Latest Pleistocene climate of the Altiplano is assumed to have been 20% wetter and 5°C colder than today, based on previous modeling. Our simulation of lacustrine change since 15,000 cal yr B.P. is forced by these modeled climate changes. The latest Pleistocene Lake Titicaca was deep, fresh, and overflowing. The latest Pleistocene riverine discharge from the lake was about 8 times greater than the modern average, sufficient to allow the expansion of the great paleolake Tauca on the central Altiplano. The lake δ18O value averaged about −13‰ SMOW (the modern value is about −4.2‰). The early Holocene decrease in precipitation caused Lake Titicaca to fall below its outlet and contributed to a rapid desiccation of paleolake Tauca. Continued evaporation caused the 100-m drop in lake level, but only a slight (1–2‰) increase (relative to modern) in δ18O of early Holocene lake waters. This Holocene lowstand level of nearly 100 m was most likely produced by a precipitation decrease, relative to modern, of about 40%. The lake was saline as recently as 2000 cal yr B.P. The timing of these hydrologic changes is in general agreement with calculated changes of insolation forcing of the South American summer monsoon.

A multiple parameter dating technique was used to establish a depth/age scale for a 171.3 m (145.87 m w.e.) surface to bedrock ice core (Bl2003) recovered from the cold recrystallization accumulation zone of the Western Belukha Plateau (4115 m a.s.l.) in the Siberian Altai Mountains. The ice-core record presented visible layering of annual accumulation and of δ18O/δD stable isotopes, and a clear tritium reference horizon. A steady-state glacier flow model for layer thinning was calibrated and applied to establish a depth/age scale. Four radiocarbon (14C) measurements of particulate organic carbon contained in ice-core samples revealed dates for the bottom part of Bl2003 from 9075 ± 1221 cal a BC at 145.2 ± 0.1 m w.e. (0.665 m w.e. from the bedrock) to 790 ± 93 AD at 121.1 m w.e. depth. Sulfate peaks coincident with volcanic eruptions, the Tunguska meteorite event, and the 1842 dust storm were used to verify dating. Analysis of the Bl2003 ice core reveals that the modern Altai glaciers were formed during the Younger Dryas (YD) (~10 950 to ~7500 cal a BC), and that they survived the Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) (~6500 to ~3600 cal a BC) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (~640 to ~1100 AD). A decrease in air temperature at the beginning and an abrupt increase at the end of the YD were identified. Intensification of winds and dust loading related to Asian desert expansion also characterized the YD. During the YD major ion concentrations increased significantly, up to 50 times for Na+ (background), up to 45 times for Ca2+ and Mg2+, and up to 20 times for SO42− relative to the recent warm period from 1993 to 2003. A warm period lasted for about three centuries following the YD signaling onset of the HCO. A significant and prolonged decrease in air temperature from ~2000 to ~600 cal a BC was associated with a severe centennial drought (SCD). A sharp increase in air temperatures after the SCD was coincident with the MWP. After the MWP a cooling was followed gradually with further onset of the Little Ice Age. During the modern warm period (1973–2003) an increase in air temperature is noted, which nearly reaches the average of HCO and MWP air temperature values.