An aircraft wing is the carrier of imaging payload (interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) or array SAR) of a high-resolution aerial remote sensing system, and high-precision estimation of wing deformation is the key. There are two main traditional modelling methods for wing deformation, namely stochastic theory modelling and material mechanics modelling only dealing with single disturbance, of which the model parameters are derived from empirical values. Aiming at the complex multi-source disturbance of an aircraft wing, this paper separately probes the influence of external disturbance (air disturbance) and internal disturbance (engine vibration) based on the real-time observation of sensors and classifies the wing deformation on the basis of auto-regressive (AR) modelling for parameter identification. With the authentic flight data of a certain types of aircraft, the experimental analysis shows that the wing deformation under the influence of engine vibration is the 14th-order AR model, and the wing deformation under the influence of turbulence is the fifth-order AR model. Meanwhile, this paper also provides an experimental verification idea for the wing deflection modelling built on the second- or third-order Markov model.