We present a statistical framework for generating predicted dynamic networks based on the observed evolution of social relationships in a population. The framework includes a novel and flexible procedure to sample dynamic networks given a probability distribution on evolving network properties; it permits the use of a broad class of approaches to model trends, seasonal variability, uncertainty, and changes in population composition. Current methods do not account for the variability in the observed historical networks when predicting the network structure; the proposed method provides a principled approach to incorporate uncertainty in prediction. This advance aids in the designing of network-based interventions, as development of such interventions often requires prediction of the network structure in the presence and absence of the intervention. Two simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the usefulness of generating predicted networks when designing network-based interventions. The framework is also illustrated by investigating results of potential interventions on bill passage rates using a dynamic network that represents the sponsor/co-sponsor relationships among senators derived from bills introduced in the U.S. Senate from 2003 to 2016.

Relational event models are becoming increasingly popular in modeling temporal dynamics of social networks. Due to their nature of combining survival analysis with network model terms, standard methods of assessing model fit are not suitable to determine if the models are specified sufficiently to prevent biased estimates. This paper tackles this problem by presenting a simple procedure for model-based simulations of relational events. Predictions are made based on survival probabilities and can be used to simulate new event sequences. Comparing these simulated event sequences to the original event sequence allows for in depth model comparisons (including parameter as well as model specifications) and testing of whether the model can replicate network characteristics sufficiently to allow for unbiased estimates.

In dynamic networks, the quickest time is the least possible time required to transmit specified data from the source to the sink. When arcs in dynamic networks are independently subjected to failures, the quickest time is a random variable. Although previous studies have already explored the reliability of the quickest path, this work presents an algorithm that computes the probability distribution of the quickest time from the viewpoint of the quickest flow that contains all possible joint and disjoint paths. For moderate dynamic networks, the proposed algorithm can be easily modified to approximate the quickest time distribution with a trade-off between accuracy and running time. The performance and properties of the exact and modified algorithms are explored through computational experiments, which are conducted on 10 randomly generated networks. The exact algorithm is also compared with the exhaustive method which examines all state vectors.

Formal analysis of the emergent structural properties of dynamic networks is largely uncharted territory. We focus here on the properties of forward reachable sets (FRS) as a function of the underlying degree distribution and edge duration. FRS are defined as the set of nodes that can be reached from an initial seed via a path of temporally ordered edges; a natural extension of connected component measures to dynamic networks. Working in a stochastic framework, we derive closed-form expressions for the mean and variance of the exponential growth rate of the FRS for temporal networks with both edge and node dynamics. For networks with node dynamics, we calculate thresholds for the growth of the FRS. The effects of finite population size are explored via simulation and approximation. We examine how these properties vary by edge duration and different cross-sectional degree distributions that characterize a range of scientifically interesting normative outcomes (Poisson and Bernoulli). The size of the forward reachable set gives an upper bound for the epidemic size in disease transmission network models, relating this work to epidemic modeling (Ferguson, 2000; Eames, 2004).

We derive asymptotic properties for a stochastic dynamic network model in a stochastic dynamic population. In the model, nodes give birth to new nodes until they die, each node being equipped with a social index given at birth. During the life of a node it creates edges to other nodes, nodes with high social index at higher rate, and edges disappear randomly in time. For this model, we derive a criterion for when a giant connected component exists after the process has evolved for a long period of time, assuming that the node population grows to infinity. We also obtain an explicit expression for the degree correlation ρ (of neighbouring nodes) which shows that ρ is always positive irrespective of parameter values in one of the two treated submodels, and may be either positive or negative in the other model, depending on the parameters.

The Algorithm in this paper is designed to find theshortest path in a network given time-dependent cost functions. It hasthe following features: it is recursive; it takes place bath in abackward dynamic programming phase and in a forward evaluation phase; itdoes not need a time-grid such as in Cook and Halsey and Kostreva andWiecek's "Algorithm One”; it requires only boundedness (above andbelow) of the cost functions; it reduces to backward multi-objectivedynamic programming if there are constant costs. This algorithm has beensuccessfully applied to multi-stage decision problems where the costsare a function of the time when the decision is made. There are examplesof further applications to tactical delay in production scheduling andto production control.