Production risk includes yield and days suitable for fieldwork variability. Both were modeled using biophysical simulation and a mean-variance, chance-constrained mathematical programming formulation representing a Kentucky corn, soybean, and wheat producer. While crop diversification, planting date, and maturity group can be used to reduce the types of risk considered, interaction between the two influences how production practices are used to manage risk. For the conditions studied, plant population alterations were less effective for risk reduction of either component. The study provides evidence of the importance of the consideration of both elements of production risk in whole farm planning.
