The goal of this paper is to go further in the analysis of the behavior of the number of descents in a random permutation. Via two different approaches relying on a suitable martingale decomposition or on the Irwin–Hall distribution, we prove that the number of descents satisfies a sharp large-deviation principle. A very precise concentration inequality involving the rate function in the large-deviation principle is also provided.

We investigate the Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of such a point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of a nonnegative reproduction function corresponds to self-excitation, and has been widely investigated in the literature. In particular, there exists a cluster representation of the Hawkes process which allows one to apply known results for Galton–Watson trees. We use renewal techniques to establish limit theorems for Hawkes processes that have reproduction functions which are signed and have bounded support. Notably, we prove exponential concentration inequalities, extending results of Reynaud-Bouret and Roy (2006) previously proven for nonnegative reproduction functions using a cluster representation no longer valid in our case. Importantly, we establish the existence of exponential moments for renewal times of M/G/$\infty$ queues which appear naturally in our problem. These results possess interest independent of the original problem.

Let V be an n-set, and let X be a random variable taking values in the power-set of V. Suppose we are given a sequence of random coupons $X_1, X_2, \ldots $ , where the $X_i$ are independent random variables with distribution given by X. The covering time T is the smallest integer $t\geq 0$ such that $\bigcup_{i=1}^t X_i=V$ . The distribution of T is important in many applications in combinatorial probability, and has been extensively studied. However the literature has focused almost exclusively on the case where X is assumed to be symmetric and/or uniform in some way.

In this paper we study the covering time for much more general random variables X; we give general criteria for T being sharply concentrated around its mean, precise tools to estimate that mean, as well as examples where T fails to be concentrated and when structural properties in the distribution of X allow for a very different behaviour of T relative to the symmetric/uniform case.

We consider a Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equation governing the evolution of the density of interacting and diffusive matter in the space of positions and velocities. We use a probabilistic interpretation to obtain convergence towards equilibrium in Wasserstein distance with an explicit exponential rate. We also prove a propagation of chaos property for an associated particle system, and give rates on the approximation of the solution by the particle system. Finally, a transportation inequality for the distribution of the particle system leads to quantitative deviation bounds on the approximation of the equilibrium solution of the equation by an empirical mean of the particles at given time.

The last few years have witnessed important new developments inthe theory and practice of pattern classification. We intend tosurvey some of the main new ideas that have led to theserecent results.

This paper is devoted to the study of some asymptotic properties of aM-estimator in a framework of detection of abrupt changes inrandom field's distribution. This class of problems includes e.g.recovery of sets. It involves various techniques, including M-estimation method, concentrationinequalities, maximal inequalities for dependent random variables and ϕ-mixing. Penalization of the criterion function when the size of thetrue model is unknown is performed. All the results apply under mild, discussedassumptions. Simple examples are provided.