Trauma exposure can cause post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), and persistently experiencing PTSS may lead to the development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Research has shown that PTSS that emerged within days of trauma was a robust predictor of PTSD development.

To investigate patterns of early stress responses to trauma and their associations with development of PTSD.

We recruited 247 civilian trauma survivors from a local hospital emergency department. The PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) and Acute Stress Disorder Scale (ASDS) were completed within 2 weeks after the traumatic event. Additionally, 3 months post-trauma 146 of these participants completed a PTSD diagnostic interview using the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5.

We first used latent profile analysis on four symptom clusters of the PCL-5 and the dissociation symptom cluster of the ASDS and determined that a four-profile model (‘severe symptoms’, ‘moderate symptoms’, ‘mild symptoms’, ‘minimal symptoms’) was optimal based on multiple fit indices. Gender was found to be predictive of profile membership. We then found a significant association between subgroup membership and PTSD diagnosis (χ2(3) = 11.85, P < 0.01, Cramer's V = 0.263). Post hoc analysis revealed that this association was driven by participants in the ‘severe symptoms’ profile, who had a greater likelihood of developing PTSD.

These findings fill the knowledge gap of identifying possible subgroups of individuals based on their PTSS severity during the early post-trauma period and investigating the relationship between subgroup membership and PTSD development, which have important implications for clinical practice.

Current theories of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) place considerable emphasis on the role cognitive distortions such as self-blame, hopelessness or preoccupation with danger play in the etiology and maintenance of the disorder. Previous studies have shown that cognitive distortions in the early aftermath of traumatic events can predict future PTSD severity but, to date, no studies have investigated the neural correlates of this association.

We conducted a prospective study with 106 acutely traumatized subjects, assessing symptom severity at three time points within the first 3 months post-trauma. A subsample of 20 subjects additionally underwent a functional 4-T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan at 2 to 4 months post-trauma.

Cognitive distortions proved to be a significant predictor of concurrent symptom severity in addition to diagnostic status, but did not predict future symptom severity or diagnostic status over and above the initial symptom severity. Cognitive distortions were correlated with blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal strength in brain regions previously implicated in visual processing, imagery and autobiographic memory recall. Intrusion characteristics accounted for most of these correlations.

This investigation revealed significant predictive value of cognitive distortions concerning concurrent PTSD severity and also established a significant relationship between cognitive distortions and neural activations during trauma recall in an acutely traumatized sample. These data indicate a direct link between the extent of cognitive distortions and the intrusive nature of trauma memories.