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1 results

  • 3 - Convergence and Sorpasso

  • Carlo Bastasin, Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli, Roma, Gianni Toniolo, Duke University, North Carolina
  • Book:
    The Rise and Fall of the Italian Economy
    Published online:
    24 August 2023
    Print publication:
    07 September 2023, pp 37-84

  • Summary

    This chapter outlines the secular convergence of Italy’s GDP. From the mid-1890s to 1913, the centuries-long economic decline was reversed. Institution-building and time-consistent policies of monetary stability and reduction of the debt-GDP ratio were among the main causes. The convergence record of the fascist years is mixed. As growth-reducing factors, we highlight “prestige policies” leading to an overvalued currency, and autarky. Postwar reconstruction was swift, followed by a quarter-century catch-up growth and cultural renaissance. The 1970s were turbulent years, marked by terrorism and inflation. Growth however continued to show unexpected resilience. Seeds of future weaknesses were nonetheless sown. Social tensions were eased by deficit-financed benefits. In the 1980s growth continued but the ratio of debt to GDP rose from 50 to almost 100 percent.