It is well known that the central limit theorem holds for partial sums of a stationary sequence (Xi) of m-dependent random variables with finite variance; however, the limit may be degenerate with variance 0 even if var(Xi) ≠ 0. We show that this happens only in the case when Xi – EXi = Yi – Yi–1 for an (m − 1)-dependent stationary sequence (Yi) with finite variance (a result implicit in earlier results), and give a version for block factors. This yields a simple criterion that is a sufficient condition for the limit not to be degenerate. Two applications to subtree counts in random trees are given.

In this paper we propose a framework that facilitates the study of large deviations for point processes based on stationary sequences with regularly varying tails. This framework allows us to keep track both of the magnitude of the extreme values of a process and the order in which these extreme values appear. Particular emphasis is put on (infinite) linear processes with random coefficients. The proposed framework provides a fairly complete description of the joint asymptotic behavior of the large values of the stationary sequence. We apply the general result on large deviations for point processes to derive the asymptotic decay of certain probabilities related to partial sum processes as well as ruin probabilities.

Classical extreme value theory for stationary sequences of random variables can to a large extent be paraphrased as the study of exceedances over a high threshold. A special role within the description of the temporal dependence between such exceedances is played by the extremal index. Parts of this theory can be generalized not only to random variables on an arbitrary state space hitting certain failure sets, but even to a triangular array of rare events on an abstract probability space. In the case of M4 (maxima of multivariate moving maxima) processes, the arguments take a simple and direct form.

For arbitrary stationary sequences of random variables satisfying a mild mixing condition, distributional approximations are established for functionals of clusters of exceedances over a high threshold. The approximations are in terms of the distribution of the process conditionally on the event that the first variable exceeds the threshold. This conditional distribution is shown to converge to a nontrivial limit if the finite-dimensional distributions of the process are in the domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme-value distribution. In this case, therefore, limit distributions are obtained for functionals of clusters of extremes, thereby generalizing results for higher-order stationary Markov chains by Yun (2000).

Under appropriate long-range dependence conditions, it is well known that the joint distribution of the number of exceedances of several high levels is asymptotically compound Poisson. Here we investigate the structure of a cluster of exceedances for stationary sequences satisfying a suitable local dependence condition, under which it is only necessary to get certain limiting probabilities, easy to compute, in order to obtain limiting results for the highest order statistics, exceedance counts and upcrossing counts.

A security of supply model for energy is described. The energy demand is a non-random periodic function of time and the supply model is a continuous-time Markov chain. Asymptotic normality is proved for the two important reliability quantities: the amount of energy not supplied and the time the demand is not met within a time interval.

Chain-dependent processes, also called sequences of random variables defined on a Markov chain, are shown to satisfy the strong law of large numbers. A central limit theorem and a law of the iterated logarithm are given for the case when the underlying Markov chain satisfies Doeblin's hypothesis. The proofs are obtained by showing independence of the initial distribution of the chain and by then restricting attention to the stationary case.