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1 results

  • Prediction of the Peak, Effect of Intervention, and Total Infected by COVID-19 in India

  • Parth Vipul Shah
  • Journal:
    Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness / Volume 16 / Issue 1 / February 2022
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    09 September 2020, pp. 40-50
    • Article
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  • Objectives:

    We study the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India and model the epidemic to guide those involved in formulating policy and building health-care capacity.

    Methods:

    This effect is studied using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. We estimate the infection rate using a least square method with Poisson noise and calculate the reproduction number.

    Results:

    The infection rate is estimated to be 0.270 and the reproduction number to be 2.70. The approximate peak of the epidemic will be August 9, 2020. A 25% drop in infection rate will delay the peak by 11 d for a 1-mo intervention period. The total infected individuals in India will be 9% of the total population.

    Conclusions:

    The predictions are sensitive to changes in the behavior of people and their practice of social distancing.