We developed a new approach to identify vulnerabilities to water insecurity across entire archaeological culture areas by combining a paleohydrological model of the sensitivites of hydrological systems to droughts with least-cost analyses of the costs to acquire domestic water. Using a custom Python script integrated into ArcGIS Pro software, we calculated the pairwise one-way cost in time for walking between 225 water sources and 5,446 Ancestral Pueblo cultural sites across the Jemez and Pajarito Plateaus of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. This allowed us to identify whether periodic hydrological droughts occurring between AD 1100 and 1700 increased water acquisition costs across these regions. We found that hydrological droughts increased travel times in both regions to durations exceeding modern standards for water insecurity. Beginning in the fourteenth century, greater underlying hydrogeological sensitivities to droughts and the decline of a dual-residence pattern caused by population losses made the remaining aggregated communities of the Pajarito Plateau much more vulnerable to water insecurity than those on the Jemez Plateau. This would have upended long-standing relationships between communities and water on the Pajarito Plateau during a time when socioeconomic integration across the northern Rio Grande Valley pulled people toward valley bottoms.

This study focuses on characterizing a discontinuity within the Seán stalagmite (4.75–7.75 cm) by means of two nondestructive techniques: (1) high-resolution micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) and (2) X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning (XRFCS). Micro-CT was used to study the stalagmite density, and XRFCS was applied to obtain the qualitative elemental composition and colour measurements. The new data obtained from nondestructive techniques have been combined with previously published geochemical data and fabric determinations from the same stalagmite found in Sa Balma des Quartó cave in Mallorca. The two methodologies applied in the present study have improved the characterization of the distinctive horizon. The micro-CT images identified the layer as a minor event due the high air content. The distinctive horizon is characterized by a high Ti-content, indicating the arrival of terrigenous particles. Based on those observations, together with the fact that the micrite layer appears filling the gaps between the older columnar fabric, we argue that the micrite layer may represent a major flooding event inside the cave after the year 1616 ± 23 CE and before the year 1623 ± 28 CE, which can be related to an extreme rainfall event. This hypothesis is further supported by the observed cave flooding during the autumn of 2018.

The fluvial geomorphology and stratigraphy on the middle Snake River at Bancroft Springs, Idaho, provide evidence for numerous episodes of Snake River aggradation and incision since the Bonneville Flood at ca. 18 ka. A suite of seven terraces ranging from 20–1 m above modern bankfull elevation records multiple cut-and-fill cycles during the latest Pleistocene and Holocene in response to local base-level controls, variations in sediment supply, and hydroclimate change. Radiocarbon and luminescence dating show that the ages of fluvial aggradation generally coincide with increased sediment supply and likely wetter hydroclimate during onset of the Younger Dryas stadial (ca. 13.2 ka), deglaciation and termination of the Younger Dryas stadial (ca. 11.3 ka), Early Holocene cooling (ca. 8.8 ka), and Neoglacial (ca. 4.5, 2.9, 1.1 ka). Six intervening periods of incision and channel stability may also reflect either reduced sediment supply, drier hydroclimate, or both. The terrace chronology can be correlated to a variety of local and regional paleoclimate proxy records and corresponds well with periods of continental- and global-scale rapid climate change during the Holocene. The fluvial record demonstrates the geomorphic response and sensitivity of large river systems to changes in hydroclimate variability, which has important implications for inferring paleoenvironmental conditions in the region.

Holocene sediments at Emerald Lake in central Utah (3090 m asl) document the paleohydroclimatic history of the western Upper Colorado River headwater region. Multi-proxy analyses of sediment composition, mineralogy, and stable isotopes of carbonate (δ18O and δ13C) show changes in effective moisture for the past ca. 10,000 years at millennial to decadal timescales. Emerald Lake originated as a shallow, closed-basin cirque pond during the Early Holocene. By ca. 7000 cal yr BP, higher lake levels and carbonate δ18O values indicate rising effective moisture and higher proportions of summer precipitation continued at least until ca. 5500 cal yr BP when a landslide entered the lake margin. Between ca. 4500 and 2400 cal yr BP dry conditions at Emerald Lake envelop the timing of the ‘Late Holocene Dry Period’ identified at lower elevations. For the past ca. 2500 years, Emerald Lake δ18O values were relatively low, indicating wetter conditions and higher snow input (compared to rain), except for dry periods at ca. 2000 cal yr BP and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly at ca. 1000 and ca. 500 cal yr BP. Results provide a long-term perspective on precipitation extremes that influence regional water supplies from a snow-dominated catchment typical of the predominant source region for the Upper Colorado River.

The Las Vegas Formation (LVF) is a well-characterized sequence of groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits exposed in and around the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada. Nearly monolithologic bedrock surrounds the valley, which provides an excellent opportunity to test the hypothesis that GWD deposits include an aeolian component. Mineralogical data indicate that the LVF sediments are dominated by carbonate minerals, similar to the local bedrock, but silicate minerals are also present. The median particle size is ~35 μm, consistent with modern dust in the region, and magnetic properties contrast strongly with local bedrock, implying an extralocal origin. By combining geochemical data from the LVF sediments and modern dust, we found that an average of ~25% of the LVF deposits were introduced by aeolian processes. The remainder consists primarily of authigenic groundwater carbonate as well as minor amounts of alluvial material and soil carbonate. Our data also show that the aeolian sediments accumulated in spring ecosystems in the Las Vegas Valley in a manner that was independent of both time and the specific hydrologic environment. These results have broad implications for investigations of GWD deposits located elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. and worldwide.

We tested the potential for sand calcites to serve as a novel paleoclimate archive by investigating their age and formation conditions. Fontainebleau sand calcites are Pleistocene in age (based on 14C and U-Th dating) and were primarily formed during glacial periods. δ13C values increase with the depth at which these sand calcites formed, consistent with open and closed CO2 systems. Interpretation of the δ18O-T relationship in sand calcites points primarily to their formation at a low temperature, around 2°C in shallow ground water and at about 9°C in deeper ground-water settings. Their occurrence, characteristics, and compositions suggest crystallization from paleo-ground waters in permafrost environments. Crystallization of sand calcites was triggered by degassing of cold carbonate-containing surface waters as they infiltrated warmer subsurface ground-water environments. We consider sand calcites to be important indicators of interactions between meteoric water and ground water in Pleistocene periglacial landscapes. Their disposition may point to specific features of periglacial landscapes, and their ages could permit an assessment of landscape incision rates. Large crystals and zoned spheroliths may, in fact, encapsulate continuous high-resolution records of continental glacial and periglacial paleoenvironments.

Various paleoclimatic records have been used to reconstruct the hydrologic history of the Altiplano, relating this history to past variability of the South American summer monsoon. Prior studies of the southern Altiplano, the location of the world’s largest salt flat, the Salar de Uyuni, and its neighbor, the Salar de Coipasa, generally agree in their reconstructions of the climate history of the past ∼24 ka. Some studies, however, have highly divergent climatic records and interpretations of earlier periods. In this study, lake-level variation was reconstructed from a ∼14-m-long sediment core from the Salar de Coipasa. These sediments span the last ∼40 ka. Lacustrine sediment accumulation was apparently continuous in the basin from ∼40 to 6 ka, with dry or very shallow conditions afterward. The fossil diatom stratigraphy and geochemical data (δ13C, δ15N, %Ca, C/N) indicate fluctuations in lake level from shallow to moderately deep, with the deepest conditions correlative with the Heinrich-1 and Younger Dryas events. The stratigraphy shows a continuous lake of variable depth and salinity during the last glacial maximum and latter stages of Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 and is consistent with environmental inferences and the original chronology of a drill core from Salar de Uyuni.

The Sahara was wetter and greener during multiple interglacial periods of the Quaternary, when some have suggested it featured very large (mega) lakes, ranging in surface area from 30,000 to 350,000 km2. In this paper, we review the physical and biological evidence for these large lakes, especially during the African Humid Period (AHP) 11–5 ka. Megalake systems from around the world provide a checklist of diagnostic features, such as multiple well-defined shoreline benches, wave-rounded beach gravels where coarse material is present, landscape smoothing by lacustrine sediment, large-scale deltaic deposits, and in places, tufas encrusting shorelines. Our survey reveals no clear evidence of these features in the Sahara, except in the Chad basin. Hydrologic modeling of the proposed megalakes requires mean annual rainfall ≥1.2 m/yr and a northward displacement of tropical rainfall belts by ≥1000 km. Such a profound displacement is not supported by other paleo-climate proxies and comprehensive climate models, challenging the existence of megalakes in the Sahara. Rather than megalakes, isolated wetlands and small lakes are more consistent with the Sahelo-Sudanian paleoenvironment that prevailed in the Sahara during the AHP. A pale-green and discontinuously wet Sahara is the likelier context for human migrations out of Africa during the late Quaternary.

One of the enduring questions in the field of paleohydrology is how quickly desert wetland ecosystems responded to past episodes of abrupt climate change. Recent investigations in the Las Vegas Valley of southern Nevada have revealed that wetlands expanded and contracted on millennial and sub-millennial timescales in response to changes in climate during the late Quaternary. Here, we evaluate geologic evidence from multiple localities in the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin that suggests the response of wetland systems to climate change is even faster, occurring at centennial, and possibly decadal, timescales. Paleowetland deposits at Dove Springs Wash, Mesquite Springs, and Little Dixie Wash, California, contain evidence of multiple wet and dry cycles in the form of organic-rich black mats, representing periods of past groundwater discharge and wet conditions, interbedded with colluvial, alluvial, and aeolian sediments, each representing dry conditions. Many of these wet-dry cycles date to within the Younger Dryas (YD) chronozone (12.9–11.7 ka), marking the first time intra-YD hydrologic variability has been documented in paleowetland deposits. Our results illustrate that desert wetland ecosystems are exceptionally sensitive to climate change and respond to climatic perturbations on timescales that are relevant to human society.

This work introduces for the first time the concept of using sinkholes in fluvial valleys as recorders of past floods. The notion is illustrated through the investigation of a complex sinkhole located in a broad floodplain underlain by salt-bearing Cenozoic evaporites. This active sinkhole comprises a large subsidence depression affecting the floodplain and the edge of a terrace, and a nested collapse sinkhole that used to host a sinkhole pond. A borehole drilled in the buried sinkhole pond revealed an ~7.8-m-thick fill that records around 2700 yr of clayey lacustrine deposition interrupted by three types of detrital facies. Two thick pebble gravel beds have been attributed to major high-competence floods: a paleoflood that occurred in Visigothic times (1537–1311 cal yr BP) and the 1961 Great Ebro River Flood, which is the largest event of the instrumental record. A trench dug in the portion of the terrace affected by subsidence exposed a mid-Holocene slack-water paleoflood deposit. The disadvantages and advantages of sinkholes as archives of past flood histories are discussed.

Sediment records from two lakes in the east-central Sierra Nevada, California, provide evidence of cooling and hydrological shifts during the Younger Dryas stade (YD; ~ 12,900–11,500 cal yr BP). A chironomid transfer function suggests that lake-water temperatures were depressed by 2°C to 4°C relative to maximum temperatures during the preceding Bølling–Allerød interstade (BA; ~ 14,500–12,900 cal yr BP). Diatom and stable isotope records suggest dry conditions during the latter part of the BA interstade and development of relatively moist conditions during the initiation of the YD stade, with a reversion to drier conditions later in the YD. These paleohydrological inferences correlate with similar timed changes detected in the adjacent Great Basin. Vegetation response during the YD stade includes the development of more open and xeric vegetation toward the end of the YD. The new records support linkages between the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and widespread YD cooling in western North America, but they also suggest complex hydrological influences. Shifting hydrological conditions and relatively muted vegetation changes may explain the previous lack of evidence for the YD stade in the Sierra Nevada and the discordance in some paleohydrological and glacial records of the YD stade from the western United States.

This paper presents new evidence from the Dhamar highlands, Yemen, of paleohydrologic response to fluctuations in Holocene climate. Stratigraphic, geochemical, and chronological analyses of highland peat and lacustrine deposits contribute to knowledge of the timing of early Holocene moisture changes on the Arabian Peninsula, providing a backdrop to understanding early cultural development in the Arabian highlands. The location of the Dhamar highlands, characterized by intermontane valleys surrounded by the highest mountains on the Arabian Peninsula and adjacent to the Indian Ocean is ideal for examining the influence of the Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) on the moisture history of this region. Fluctuations in the lacustrine and paleosol records of the Dhamar highlands reflect both local changes in paleohydrology and regional influences on the Holocene paleoclimatic conditions in southwest Arabia. In addition, a peat deposit with a radiocarbon age of 10,253 ± 10,560 cal yr BP documents some of the earliest Holocene high moisture conditions on the Arabian Peninsula.

Lake-water oxygen-isotope histories for three lakes in northern Russia, derived from the cellulose oxygen-isotope stratigraphies of sediment cores, provide the basis for preliminary reconstruction of Holocene paleohydrology in two regions along the boreal treeline. Deconvolution of shifting precipitation δ18O from secondary evaporative isotopic enrichment is aided by knowledge of the distribution of isotopes in modern precipitation, the isotopic composition of paleo-waters preserved in frozen peat deposits, as well as other supporting paleoclimatic information. These data indicate that during the early Holocene, when the boreal treeline advanced to the current arctic coastline, conditions in the lower Yenisey River region were moist compared to the present, whereas greater aridity prevailed to the east near the lower Lena River. This longitudinal moisture gradient is consistent with the suggestion that oceanic forcing (increased sea-surface temperatures in the Nordic Seas and reduced sea-ice cover) was a major contributor to the development of a more maritime climate in western Eurasia, in addition to increased summer insolation. East of the Taimyr Peninsula, large tracts of the continental shelf exposed by glacial sea-level drawdown may have suppressed maritime climatic influence in what are now coastal areas. In contrast, during the late Holocene the two regions have apparently experienced coherent shifts in effective moisture. The similarity of the records may primarily reflect reduced North Atlantic influence in the Nordic Seas and southward retreat of coastline in eastern Siberia, coupled with declining summer insolation.

A comprehensive record of lake level changes in the Dead Sea has been reconstructed using multiple, well dated sediment cores recovered from the Dead Sea shore. Interpreting the lake level changes as monitors of precipitation in the Dead Sea drainage area and the regional eastern Mediterranean palaeoclimate, we document the presence of two major wet phases (∼ 10–8.6 and ∼ 5.6–3.5 cal kyr BP) and multiple abrupt arid events during the Holocene. The arid events in the Holocene Dead Sea appear to coincide with major breaks in the Near East cultural evolution (at ∼ 8.6, 8.2, 4.2, 3.5 cal kyr BP). Wetter periods are marked by the enlargement of smaller settlements and growth of farming communities in desert regions, suggesting a parallelism between climate and Near East cultural development.

A hydrologic model of the Shingobee Watershed in north-central Minnesota was developed to reconstruct mid-Holocene paleo-lake levels for Williams Lake, a surface-water body located in the southern portion of the watershed. Hydrologic parameters for the model were first estimated in a calibration exercise using a 9-yr historical record (1990–1998) of climatic and hydrologic stresses. The model reproduced observed temporal and spatial trends in surface/groundwater levels across the watershed. Mid-Holocene aquifer and lake levels were then reconstructed using two paleoclimatic data sets: CCM1 atmospheric general circulation model output and pollen-transfer functions using sediment core data from Williams Lake.

Calculated paleo-lake levels based on pollen-derived paleoclimatic reconstructions indicated a 3.5-m drop in simulated lake levels and were in good agreement with the position of mid-Holocene beach sands observed in a Williams Lake sediment core transect. However, calculated paleolake levels based on CCM1 climate forcing produced only a 0.05-m drop in lake levels. We found that decreases in winter precipitation rather than temperature increases had the largest effect on simulated mid-Holocene lake levels. The study illustrates how watershed models can be used to critically evaluate paleoclimatic reconstructions by integrating geologic, climatic, limnologic, and hydrogeologic data sets.

Multi-proxy paleolimnological analyses on lake sediment cores from "Spruce Island Lake" (58° 50.82′ N, 111° 28.84′ W), a perched basin in the northern Peace sector of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada, give insights into the relative roles of flow regulation of the Peace River and climatic variability on the basin hydro-ecology. Results indicate substantial variability in basin hydro-ecology over the past 300 years ranging from seasonal to periodic desiccation in the 1700s to markedly wetter conditions during the early 1800s to early 1900s. The reconstruction is consistent with (1) dry climatic conditions that defined the peak of the Little Ice Age and subsequent amelioration evident in conventional ring-width and isotopic analyses of tree-ring records located hydrologically and climatically upstream of the PAD, and (2) Peace River flood history inferred from sub-annual magnetic susceptibility measurements from another lake sediment record in the Peace sector of the PAD. Although regulation of the Peace River for hydroelectric power generation since 1968 has long been considered a major stressor of the PAD ecosystem leading to reduced frequency of ice-jam and open-water flooding and an extended period of drying, our results show that current hydro-ecological status is not unprecedented as both wetter and drier conditions have persisted for decades in the recent past under natural climatic variability. Furthermore, paleolimnological evidence from Spruce Island Lake indicates that recently observed dryness is part of a longer trend which began some 20�"40 years prior to Peace River regulation.

We reconstructed Holocene water-level and vegetation dynamics based on pollen and plant macrofossils from a coastal lake in Upper Michigan. Our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that major fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels resulted in part from climatic changes. We also used our data to provide temporal constraints to the mid-Holocene dry period in Upper Michigan. From 9600 to 8600 cal yr B.P. a shallow, lacustrine environment characterized the Mud Lake basin. A Sphagnum-dominated wetland occupied the basin during the mid-Holocene dry period (∼8600 to 6600 cal yr B.P.). The basin flooded at 6600 cal yr B.P. as a result of rising water levels associated with the onset of the Nipissing I phase of ancestral Lake Superior. This flooding event occurred contemporaneously with a well-documented regional expansion of Tsuga. Betula pollen increased during the Nipissing II phase (4500 cal yr B.P.). Macrofossil evidence from Mud Lake suggests that Betula alleghaniensis expansion was primarily responsible for the rising Betula pollen percentages. Major regional and local vegetational changes were associated with all the major Holocene highstands of the western Great Lakes (Nipissing I, Nipissing II, and Algoma). Traditional interpretations of Great Lakes water-level history should be revised to include a major role of climate.

Despite the hypothesized importance of the tropics in the global climate system, few tropical paleoclimatic records extend to periods earlier than the last glacial maximum (LGM), about 20,000 years before present. We present a well-dated 170,000-year time series of hydrologic variation from the southern hemisphere tropics of South America that extends from modern times through most of the penultimate glacial period. Alternating mud and salt units in a core from Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia reflect alternations between wet and dry periods. The most striking feature of the sequence is that the duration of paleolakes increased in the late Quaternary. This change may reflect increased precipitation, geomorphic or tectonic processes that affected basin hydrology, or some combination of both. The dominance of salt between 170,000 and 140,000 yr ago indicates that much of the penultimate glacial period was dry, in contrast to wet conditions in the LGM. Our analyses also suggest that the relative influence of insolation forcing on regional moisture budgets may have been stronger during the past 50,000 years than in earlier times.

Reconstructions of lake-water salinity at decadal resolution for the last 2000 yr are compared among three lakes in North Dakota to infer regional patterns of drought. The intersite comparisons are used to distinguish local variation in climate or hydrology from regional patterns of change. At one lake, diatom-inferred salinity and lake-water Mg/Ca inferred from ostracode shell chemistry are coherent, both in terms of direction and magnitude of change, indicating that each is a robust technique for reconstructing lake-water chemistry. The data show that the last 2000 yr have been characterized by frequent shifts between high and low salinity, suggesting shifts between dry and moist periods. Long intervals of high salinity suggest periods of multiple decades when droughts were intense and frequent, thus indicating times when drought was more persistent than in the 20th century. Both the Medieval Period and Little Ice Age were hydrologically complex, and there is no clear evidence to suggest that either interval was coherent or unusual in effective moisture relative to long-term patterns. Differences among the three sites may be attributed to variation in local hydrology, and these differences emphasize the need for multiple sites in deriving regional climate interpretations from paleoecological data.

Sediment-based reconstructions of late-Quaternary lake levels provide direct evidence of hydrologic responses to climate change, but many studies only provide approximate lake-elevation curves. Here, we demonstrate a new method for producing quantitative time series of lake elevation based on the facies and elevations of multiple cores collected from a lake's margin. The approach determines the facies represented in each core using diagnostic data, such as sand content, and then compares the results across cores to determine the elevation of the littoral zone over time. By applying the approach computationally, decisions are made systematically and iteratively using different facies classification schemes to evaluate the associated uncertainty. After evaluating our assumptions using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), we quantify past lake-elevation changes, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (ΔP−ET), and uncertainty in both at Lake of the Woods and Little Windy Hill Pond, Wyoming. The well-correlated (r = 0.802 ± 0.002) reconstructions indicate that water levels at both lakes fell at >11,300, 8000–5500, and 4700–1600 cal yr BP when ΔP − ET decreased to −50 to −250 mm/yr. Differences between the reconstructions are typically small (10 ± 24 mm/yr since 7000 cal yr BP), and the similarity indicates that our reconstruction method can produce statistically comparable paleohydrologic datasets across networks of sites.