Climate change presents a particularly complex challenge in the context of flyway scale conservation of migratory bird species as it requires coordinated action by multiple countries along these species’ migratory routes. Coordinating conservation responses requires understanding the vulnerability of species and their habitats to climate change at the flyway scale throughout each species’ annual cycle. To contribute to such understanding, we used species distribution models to assess the exposure to climate change of waterbird species that are the focus of the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA). We found that the species with the smallest proportion of their current range projected to be climatically suitable by 2050 (those whose distributions respond to changes in water availability but that do not perform synchronised migration) are dispersive species in the Afrotropical biogeographic realm, and migratory species in their breeding season, particularly Arctic breeding waders. These species also have the most limited availability of newly suitable areas. Projections for most other Palearctic migratory waterbird species suggest that losses of suitable areas in their current passage and wintering ranges may be largely offset by new areas becoming climatically suitable. The majority of migratory Palearctic waterbirds in the breeding season and Afrotropical waterbirds are widely dispersed with only a small proportion of their populations currently supported by ‘Critical Sites’ (i.e. sites that are either important for Globally Threatened Species or support 1% of the bioregional population of any waterbird species). This makes it unlikely that climate change adaptation measures focusing only on key sites will be sufficient to counter the predicted range losses. Therefore, climate change adaptation responses should also be implemented at the landscape scale for Afrotropical waterbirds and for breeding populations of Palearctic migrant waterbirds.

Birds are suffering from steep population declines on a global scale and they are one of the few taxonomic groups for which these declines are well documented by long-term monitoring data. This study provides a synthesis of the status of the breeding birds of Greece. To this aim, we retrieved population size estimates from six sources spanning 22 years (1992–2014) and calculated species’ trends in Greece. Using the IUCN Red List assessments for each species we assessed whether ecological traits including habitat and diet preferences were associated with species’ trends and conservation status in Europe and determined major threats affecting birds in Greece. Moreover, we assessed the importance of Important Bird & Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) in terms of declining trigger species. Results showed that almost one fifth of the breeding birds in Greece have declining populations. Raptors were found to be the most threatened group of birds whereas the highest declines by dietary group were observed in scavengers, with 60% of species showing a decreasing trend. The most common threats were those that cause habitat alteration and degradation as well as more direct effects such as poisoning. Our results suggest that restoration of habitat and ecosystem functions along with the management of protected areas and improvement of legislation should be the main conservation actions undertaken and pinpointed the IBAs where they should be prioritized for implementation. Finally, further research, especially on specific drivers of population change, along with further examination of current and past population trends, will increase the power and accuracy of future regional Red List assessments especially concerning the breeding species for which the country bears the greatest responsibility.