In 2023, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued guidance documents that specified new procedures for assessing prospective government regulations (Circular A-4) and economic policies more generally (Circular A-94). These revisions to long-standing guidance were not minor updates but shifted policy analyses from an efficiency-oriented perspective to a redistributive approach. OMB broadened the guidelines for reporting distributional consequences of policies and also specified how policy impacts on different income groups should be weighted. The weights assume that the social welfare function is governed by the sum of identical individual utility functions, each of which exhibits a substantial rate of diminishing marginal utility of income. The resulting weights provide a premium for households below the median-income level and a considerable penalty for those at higher-income levels. Application of the weights to property losses creates potentially substantial inefficiencies. If based on current empirical evidence on the income elasticity of the value of a statistical life rather than assuming that there is a complete offset of the weights, application of the weights to mortality risk valuation would generate inequities in protection.

This paper conducts a benefit–cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development (R&D) in the Global South. We extend a recent modeling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D are estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) is 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond.

This paper deals with the phenomenon of poverty-trap regimes in Mexico, that is, self-reinforcing mechanisms in which municipalities which start poor remain poor. We develop a coordination game of poverty traps driven by strategic interactions of economic agents: people choose to complete or not their education levels since it might be excessively costly and unprofitable. A one-shot game is constructed and then converted into a system of differential equations in which strategies that perform relatively better become more abundant in the population. Applying evolutionary games and symbolic-regimes dynamics (nonparametric and nonlinear techniques), we show that Mexican regions are in poverty-trap regimes (stable and dynamically evolving low-level equilibria) characterized by incomplete education and low income since initial conditions (education and income per capita) are such (very precarious) that poverty is the stable steady-state situation. We examine scenarios to show that to overcome the high-poverty regime by the year 2030, it is necessary to reduce incomplete education by 10% in the 5-year periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030 and increase per-capita income by 10% in both periods.

This article uses empirical evidence, based on labour market indicators, to analyse the factors influencing the incidence of child labour in Pakistan, from both supply and demand sides. The level of demand for child labour is shown to be linked mainly to adult wage levels, the adult unemployment rate in an area, and the size of the informal and agriculture sectors. The supply of child labour is seen to be positively linked to the proportion of adult unemployment in the household. Unlike previous studies, the article analyses both demand and supply side factors in a context of poverty and takes account of the co-existence of formal and informal labour markets. Furthermore, to generalise the issue for a longer span of time (which previous studies fail to do), it adopts the methodology of a pseudo-panel approach based on that proposed by Deaton. This approach makes it possible to pinpoint more accurately the factors, and their interaction, that need to be considered in any effective policy approach to the issue of child labour. To prevent unintended consequences, a multi-faceted development approach is required.

A budget standard indicates how much a particular family living in a particular place at a particular time needs in order to achieve a particular standard of living. This article presents new estimates that build on the earlier budget standards produced by the Social Policy Research Centre in the 1990s. The new budgets incorporate increases in consumer prices and community standards and reflect changes in item availability, retail practices and shopping behaviour, as well as improved research methods, 20 years of use and experience, and new data. They are designed to achieve a minimum income for healthy living standard and apply to families with a breadwinner who is either in full-time work and receiving the minimum wage, or unemployed and receiving Newstart Allowance. The estimates suggest that although the minimum wage is adequate for single people, it is not adequate to meet the needs of many couple families with and without children, while Newstart Allowance does not provide an adequate safety net for the unemployed, whatever their family status.

Although the issue of redistribution is glossed over by Marglin, there are three reasons why decarbonisation must be accompanied by a massive scaling up of redistribution from the global North to South if the agenda is to be founded on a social justice approach. First, constructing a capital infrastructure in the South in a manner that maximises the potential for decarbonisation would tend to be very import-intensive. Hence, it would require external financing or else risk running aground through balance of payment constraints. Second, there is already a tendency in the global economy of siphoning resources from South to North, in particular through the increasing control over flows of value and wealth by Northern corporations from their commanding positions within international networks. Southern productivity needs to be contextualised from this perspective given the risk that climate negotiations lock in the subordination of Southern countries within these global networks, rather than seeking ways for Southern producers to leverage more value for the output and carbon emissions they are already producing. Third, population and labour transitions in the South place relatively greater pressure than in the past on employment generation in tertiary (service) sectors, in which distributive and redistributive processes play essential roles in bolstering labour demand. The neglect of global redistribution could undermine the capacity of Southern countries to face these broader development challenges, which are already immense even in the absence of decarbonisation. A key question is how to organise global redistributive transfers in a manner that does not continue to subordinate Southern populations to Northern interests. The challenge for decarbonisation is the forging of a political will for redistribution that is motivated by climate change rather than geopolitics, and that respects national ownership and self-determination.

Economic freedom is robustly associated with income growth, but does this association extend to the poorest in a society? In this paper, we employ Canada's longitudinal cohorts of income mobility between 1982 and 2018 to answer this question. We find that economic freedom, as measured by the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom of North America (EFNA) index, is positively associated with multiple measures of income mobility for people in the lowest income deciles, including (a) absolute income gain; (b) the percentage of people with rising income; and (c) average decile mobility. For the overall population, economic freedom has weaker effects.

In 2015, the U.S. Treasury Department launched myRA, a no-fee retirement account designed for people who lacked employer-sponsored retirement options. We report findings from two behavioral field experiments intended to motivate interest in using the tax refund to open and fund myRAs directly through the tax-filing process. These experiments, administered to more than 100,000 low-income tax filers in 2016, embedded persuasive messages in emails sent to filers and directly within online tax-filing software. We find that interest in myRA was generally very low, although interest and enrollment intentions varied depending on the framing of the program's benefits.

This paper explores the extent to which child labor perpetuates the cycle of household poverty, as well as food insecurity using the sixth round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey. The study employs a counterfactual framework and an endogenous treatment effect econometric technique to accurately examine the causal link between child labor and long-term household poverty and food security. Results suggest a positive relationship between early paid work and long-term poverty and food insecurity. This finding provides empirical evidence to indicate that child labor has the potential to create and perpetuate poverty traps. From a policy perspective, findings from this study also contribute to the modern policy debates surrounding the achievement of the sustainable development goals on reducing poverty and hunger in developing countries.

We analyze the economic costs and benefits of “community-led total sanitation” (CLTS), a sanitation intervention that relies on community-level behavioral change, in a hypothetical rural region in sub-Saharan Africa with 200 villages and 100,000 people. The analysis incorporates data on the effectiveness of CLTS from recent randomized controlled trials and other evaluations. The net benefits of this intervention are estimated both with and without the inclusion of a positive health externality, that is, the additional reduction in diarrhea for an individual when a sufficient proportion of other individuals in the community construct and use latrines and thereby decrease the overall load of waterborne pathogens and fecal bacteria in the environment. We find that CLTS interventions would pass a benefit–cost test in many situations, but that outcomes are not as favorable as some previous studies suggest. The model results are sensitive to baseline conditions, including the value of time, income level used to calculate the value of a statistical life, discount rate, case fatality rate, diarrhea incidence, and time spent traveling to defecation sites. We conclude that many communities likely have economic investment opportunities that are more attractive than CLTS, and recommend careful economic analysis of CLTS in specific locations.

This paper uses two recent household surveys, together with data from the College for Control and Monitoring of Oil Revenues, to analyse the impact of oil revenues on wellbeing in Chad. Following a multiple-correspondence analysis to estimate a synthetic household-based multidimensional wellbeing (MDW) index, we used the difference-in-difference approach to assess the impact of oil revenues on average MDW at the department level. We found evidence that departments in Chad that received significant oil transfers have a higher MDW compared to those disadvantaged by the oil-revenue-redistribution policy. We conclude that, in order to promote economic inclusion, the government of Chad should better develop oil-revenue-redistribution policies according to local development needs and target the poorest departments.

Because their assets and income represent such a small share of national wealth, the impacts of climate change on poor people, even if dramatic, will be largely invisible in aggregate economic statistics such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Assessing and managing future impacts of climate change on poverty requires different metrics, and specific studies focusing on the vulnerability of poor people. This special issue provides a set of such studies, looking at the exposure and vulnerability of people living in poverty to shocks and stressors that are expected to increase in frequency or intensity due to climate change, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and impacts on agricultural production and ecosystem services. This introduction summarizes their approach and findings, which support the idea that the link between poverty and climate vulnerability goes both ways: poverty is one major driver of people's vulnerability to climate-related shocks and stressors, and this vulnerability is keeping people in poverty. The paper concludes by identifying priorities for future research.

Despite complex interlinkages, insights into the multifaceted relationship between environmental risks and poverty can be gained through an analysis of different risks across space, time and scale within a single context using consistent methods. Combining geo-spatial data on eight environmental risks and household survey data from 2010–2014 for the case study of Vietnam, this paper shows: (i) at the district level, the incidence of poverty is higher in high risk areas, (ii) at the household level, poorer households face higher environmental risks, (iii) for some risks the relationship with household-level consumption varies between rural and urban areas, and (iv) environmental risks explain consumption differences between households, but less so changes over time. While altogether these analyses cannot establish a causal relationship between environmental risks and poverty, they do indicate that Vietnam's poor are disproportionally exposed. Given growing pressures due to climate change, addressing such risks should be a focus of poverty reduction efforts.

Over the past century and a half, Spain has had a tumultuous political history. What impact has this had on social policy? Democracy has had a positive effect on both the levels of social spending and its long-term growth trend. With the arrival of democracy in 1931, the transition began from a traditional regime (with low levels of social spending) to a modern regime (with high levels of social spending). Franco’s dictatorship, however, reversed this change in direction, retarding the positive growth in social spending. At the same time, the effect of left-wing parties was statistically significant only in the 1930s (prior to the Keynesian consensus) and in the period of the Bourbon Restoration (when the preferences of low-income groups were systematically ignored).

Methiozolin is a new isoxazoline herbicide that has scarcely been tested in Kentucky bluegrass turf. A field trial was conducted in Blacksburg, VA, to determine response of 110 Kentucky bluegrass varieties and winter annual weeds to sequential fall applications of methiozolin. At 1.5 and 6 mo after initial treatment (MAIT), Kentucky bluegrass injury I30 values (predicted methiozolin rate that causes 30% Kentucky bluegrass injury) ranged between 3.4 to more than 10 times the recommended methiozolin rate for annual bluegrass control. Methiozolin at all rates reduced cover of annual bluegrass, common chickweed, corn speedwell, hairy bittercress, mouseear chickweed, and Persian speedwell but increased cover of parsley-piert. For all varieties, methiozolin at 2 kg ai ha−1 increased Kentucky bluegrass cover, turf quality, and turf normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) relative to the nontreated check at 6 MAIT. Kentucky bluegrass relative cover change (RCC) was attributed primarily to weed control but was inversely correlated with methiozolin rates because of increased weed control and reduced Kentucky bluegrass growth. Despite the decline in RCC with increasing methiozolin rates, most Kentucky bluegrass varieties treated with the highest methiozolin rate (6 kg ha−1) still had greater Kentucky bluegrass cover than the nontreated check at 6 MAIT. Results from this study indicate that two fall applications of methiozolin at rates beyond that previously reported for annual bluegrass control can safely be applied to a broad range of Kentucky bluegrass varieties spanning most of the known genetic classifications.

Conditionality has increasingly been part of benefit entitlement and its effects have been examined in a number of ways. While the focus of previous research has been on general conditions such as job search and acceptance of job offers, this paper examines conditionality specifically in relation to participation in training. Using data from a qualitative evaluation of a government programme, the Skills Conditionality pilot, the paper uses two hypotheses to critically assess the effectiveness of conditionality as a benefits policy: that it is successful in increasing participation in training; and that it is harmful by reducing time for job search.

Dans la perspective d'une stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté et l'atteinte des Objectifs du Millénaire pour le Développement, une littérature sur la croissance pro-pauvre s'est développée depuis une quinzaine d'années. Toutefois, les analyses d'impact sur la pauvreté des réformes sont appliquées en équilibre partiel et abordent peu l'efficacité et l'équité conjointement. De plus, elles s'intéressent rarement aux interactions entre les politiques envisagées. Nous abordons ces questions à travers une application d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable de type macro/micro aux Philippines dans lequel nous générons de la croissance par l'endogénéisation de l'offre de travail et les externalités des dépenses publiques. Les résultats mitigés obtenus des simulations de réformes illustrent l'importance de la prise en compte des spécificités et du contexte particulier de chaque pays dans la mise en œuvre des réformes.