In this presentation, the development of a simulation model that can examine the
long-term strategy of materials industries, called a material strategy model, is proposed.
This model has the following structure: first, the world is divided into a number of areas
and a scenario for the demand for end products in the future in each area is provided.
Then, the system required to realize the scenario and to minimize CO2 emission
or the total cost is calculated using this model. In other words, the optimization to
select processes in society to minimize total CO2 emission or total cost is
carried out. As a result, the possibility of the long-term scenario; for example, the
amount of car production based on population increase and GDP growth, can be discussed by
considering CO2 emission and consumption of resources. A few simulation models
to discuss long-term strategy have been developed in the field of energy system studies.
In the energy system model, only a few resources such as coal, oil, natural gas and
uranium are considered, but, in the material strategy model, it is necessary to examine
many materials and resources. In addition, the material strategy model should have an
energy model as one part of the model. As a first step, a prototype model mainly focusing
on iron and steel with their alloys should be developed to show the capability to develop
the whole model.