Motivated by disease outbreaks and trade shocks, a dynamic equilibrium displacement model is calibrated for the U.S. pear industry to simulate welfare from various shocks compared to a baseline. Our contribution is assessing the impact to intermediary packers for fresh fruit and processors for processed fruit in addition to growers and consumers. The processed market is more sensitive than the fresh market generally, and supply shocks induce larger impacts on both markets than trade sanctions. Impacts to intermediaries are on par with growers, indicating that not considering them misstates the distribution of damages to the industry from a shock.

An equilibrium displacement model of the U.S. meat markets is used to measure the potential impacts of promotion investment, differentiating meats by types and by supply source, taking into account the U.S. participation in global meat markets, and considering imperfect competition in the meat industry. The increase in U.S. producer welfare resulting from a 10 percent increase in promotion ranges from -$1.29 million to $2.60 million for U.S. beef producers and from -$0.96 million to $1.67 million for U.S. pork producers, depending primarily on the advertising elasticity used.

Wind-borne diseases can spread rapidly and cause large losses. Producers may have little incentive to prevent disease spread because prevention may not be welfare-maximizing. This study proposes a market-based mitigation program that indemnifies producers against disease-related losses and provides an incentive to neighboring producers to take preventive action, which can substantially mitigate infestations, reduce the likelihood of catastrophic losses, and increase social welfare. An equilibrium displacement model simulates introduction of the program for U.S. soybeans. Simulations reveal that the market-based solution contributes to minor market distortions but also reduces social welfare losses and could succeed for other at-risk commodities.

Because of public health concerns, regulators are considering requiring post-harvest treatment of halfshell and shucked oysters by wholesalers and processors. Two recently developed post-harvest treatment technologies may actually reduce the costs of producing shucked oysters, but would increase the costs of halfshell oysters. An interregional model of the wholesale oyster industry is developed to estimate the effects of treatment requirements on prices, output, and employment. If post-harvest treatment is required for all Gulf oysters, price increases are estimated to be less than 20% and, in some cases, prices decrease. Results indicate producer and consumer losses in the halfshell market are partially or more than offset by gains in the shucked market.

The effects of various supply and demand shifts on beef price, quantity, andindustry welfare have been widely studied under the assumption of beefquality homogeneity. In this paper, we construct a model of the beef sectorthat incorporates differences in beef quality. The model is used to analyzethe effect of supply and demand shifts on changes in prices and quantitiesof high- and low-quality beef and changes in revenue accruing to producersof high- and low-quality beef. Model results indicate that supply and demandshocks have the potential to alter the average quality of beef on the marketand the price premium charged for high-quality beef, which has importantimplications for retailers selling quality-differentiated beef and producersselling cattle on a grid.

This article addresses the issues of the potential impacts of the introduction of black sigatoka into Puerto Rico under situations in which the government assists growers in managing the spread of the disease, with and without prohibitions on imports of plantains and bananas. An equilibrium displacement model is used to quantify the impact of black sigatoka. The results indicate that under both scenarios the net economic benefits to society were negative. Over the long term, the government would be well-advised to invest in research to develop plantain and banana varieties that are resistant to black sigatoka.