In the context of the Solvency II directive, the operation of an internal risk model is a possible way for risk assessment and for the determination of the solvency capital requirement of an insurance company in the European Union. A Monte Carlo procedure is customary to generate a model output. To be compliant with the directive, validation of the internal risk model is conducted on the basis of the model output. For this purpose, we suggest a new test for checking whether there is a significant change in the modeled solvency capital requirement. Asymptotic properties of the test statistic are investigated and a bootstrap approximation is justified. A simulation study investigates the performance of the test in the finite sample case and confirms the theoretical results. The internal risk model and the application of the test is illustrated in a simplified example. The method has more general usage for inference of a broad class of law-invariant and coherent risk measures on the basis of a paired sample.

We study the rare-event behavior of the workload process in a transitory queue, where the arrival epochs (or 'points') of a finite number of jobs are assumed to be the ordered statistics of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. The service times (or 'marks') of the jobs are assumed to be i.i.d. random variables with a general distribution, that are jointly independent of the arrival epochs. Under the assumption that the service times are strictly positive, we derive the large deviations principle (LDP) satisfied by the workload process. The analysis leverages the connection between ordered statistics and self-normalized sums of exponential random variables to establish the LDP. In this paper we present the first analysis of rare events in transitory queueing models, supplementing prior work that has focused on fluid and diffusion approximations.

Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures. For estimation of such nonlinear functionals of the underlying distribution, the standard efficiency analysis is not necessarily applicable. In this paper we therefore study importance sampling algorithms by considering moderate deviations of the associated weighted empirical processes. Using a delta method for large deviations, combined with classical large deviation techniques, the moderate deviation principle is obtained for importance sampling estimators of two of the most common risk measures: value at risk and expected shortfall.

Let M be a bounded domain of with a smooth boundary. We relate the Cheeger constant of M and the conductance of a neighborhood graph defined on a random sample from M. By restricting the minimization defining the latter over a particular class of subsets, we obtain consistency (after normalization) as the sample size increases, and show that any minimizing sequence of subsets has a subsequence converging to a Cheeger set of M.

Considering the centered empirical distribution function F n-F asa variable in ${\mathbb L}^p(\mu)$ , we derive non asymptotic upperbounds for the deviation of the ${\mathbb L}^p(\mu)$ -norms ofF n-F as well as central limit theorems for the empirical processindexed by the elements of generalized Sobolev balls. These resultsare valid for a large class of dependent sequences, includingnon-mixing processes and some dynamical systems.

For supercritical multitype Markov branching processes in continuous time, we investigate the evolution of types along those lineages that survive up to some time t. We establish almost-sure convergence theorems for both time and population averages of ancestral types (conditioned on nonextinction), and identify the mutation process describing the type evolution along typical lineages. An important tool is a representation of the family tree in terms of a suitable size-biased tree with trunk. As a by-product, this representation allows a ‘conceptual proof’ (in the sense of Kurtz et al.) of the continuous-time version of the Kesten-Stigum theorem.

We investigate convex rearrangements, called convexifications for brevity, of stochastic processes over fixed time intervals and develop the corresponding asymptotic theory when the time intervals indefinitely expand. In particular, we obtain strong and weak limit theorems for these convexifications when the processes are Gaussian with stationary increments and then illustrate the results using fractional Brownian motion. As a theoretical basis for these investigations, we extend some known, and also obtain new, results concerning the large sample asymptotic theory for the empirical generalized Lorenz curves and the Vervaat process when observations are stationary and either short-range or long-range dependent.

We study the asymptotic behavior of the empirical process when theunderlying data are Gaussian and exhibit seasonallong-memory. We prove that the limiting process can be quitedifferent from the limit obtained in the case of regularlong-memory. However, in both cases, the limiting process isdegenerated. We apply our results to von–Mises functionals andU-Statistics.

The paper describes a new numerical method for the calculation of noncrossing probabilities for arbitrary boundaries by a Poisson process. We find the method to be simple in implementation, quick and efficient - it works reliably for Poisson processes of very high intensity n, up to several thousand. Hence, it can be used to detect unusual features in the finite-sample behaviour of empirical process and trace it down to very high sample sizes. It also can be used as a good approximation for noncrossing probabilities for Brownian motion and Brownian bridge, in particular when the boundaries are not regular. As a numerical example we demonstrate the divergence of normalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics from their prescribed limiting distributions (Eicker (1979), Jaeshke (1979)) for quite large n in contrast to very regular behaviour of statistics of Mason (1983). For the Brownian motion case we considered square-root, Daniels' (1969) and Grooneboom's (1989) boundaries.

By using Chibisov-O'Reilly type theorems for uniform empirical and quantile processes based on stationary observations, we establish a weak approximation theory for empirical Lorenz curves and their inverses used in economics. In particular, we obtain weak approximations for empirical Lorenz curves and their inverses also under the assumptions of mixing dependence, often used structures of dependence for observations.

Several new limit theorems for one- and two-sample statistics of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov type are obtained. These generalize results of Takács, Vincze, and others. The proofs combine combinatorial and weak convergence techniques.