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  • SHORT- AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF DEVALUATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM ARGENTINA

  • Luciano Campos
  • Journal:
    Revista de Historia Economica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History / Volume 41 / Issue 2 / September 2023
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    21 March 2022, pp. 213-241
    Print publication:
    September 2023
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  • Devaluations were traditionally considered to be expansionary in the short run and have no real long-run effects. Alternatively, some observers in developing countries found that devaluations were contractionary on impact, and that they might foster long-term growth. Using Argentina as a case study, which is convenient due to its long series availability and its subsequent switches in exchange rate regimes, four structural shocks are identified in line with the traditional and alternative views. It is found that devaluations were mostly contractionary, and that real long-run effects were only possible when inflation was either low or moderate. In light of the estimates, a historical revision of Argentinean devaluation episodes from 1854 to 2018 has been carried out.